Tomorrow Should Be A Great Day To Day Trade SPX/NDX/RUT And HUI/XAU Short
Tomorrow should be a great day to day trade SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) and HUI/XAU/gold short, based on the extremely bearish WMT Lead Indicator, at -3.50% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/1-24, that became progressively more bearish as the session progessed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and, based on the cycles/Elliott Wave count, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
After SPX (S & P 500) (and NDX) put in a likely Wave A intermediate term (began 10-11-07) cycle low yesterday (RUT on Tuesday), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, it did a monster Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, that probably would have peaked just after today's open, but, the usual massive Thursday Fed credit injection ($19.25 Billion in Repos, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE), is probably what led to an intraday Wave 5 rollover upcycle due to strong program buying, as opposed to the start of an Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle.
Notice how similar HUI's 5 day intraday chart is to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.94% versus the XAU today/1-24, after being a very bearish -1.92% on 1-23, -1.69% on 1-22, -1.11% on 1-18.
HUI/XAU began a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle on Tuesday 1-22 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. The huge Wave A downcycle and likely start of a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-14-08.
Tomorrow, I'll be looking to day trade SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) "ultra" short via either SDS, QID, or (probably) UWM, and/or, I'll be looking to day trade HUI/XAU short via shorting the Gold Miners ETF GDX.
I'll wait for a significant/sharp intraday Wave A type decline and look to go short during an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle. A bearish large spike on the intraday candlestick chart is something to look for when the intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle peaks.
Downside gaps to watch tomorrow are GDX's downside gap at 48.19, the XAU's downside gap at 175.65, and, NEM's downside gap at 50.50, all created at today's open.
Since putting in a short term Wave A downcycle cycle low early on Tuesday 1-22, HUI/XAU have done an up down, and, are either still in a very short term Wave 3 upycle or are early in Wave 4 down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is why I'll only be looking to day trade HUI/XAU short tomorrow, and won't hold a short position overnight, because, there should be a higher very short term Wave 5 cycle high a few sessions from now. I'll have to figure out at that time if the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (began Tuesday 1-22) is peaking (likely), since a large short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle will have occurred.
I day traded GDX short today (33 minute trade), shorting it at 50.22 and covering at 50.00. The large gap up by GDX made me cautious, and, GDX became oversold when I covered.
A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
After SPX (S & P 500) (and NDX) put in a likely Wave A intermediate term (began 10-11-07) cycle low yesterday (RUT on Tuesday), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, it did a monster Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, that probably would have peaked just after today's open, but, the usual massive Thursday Fed credit injection ($19.25 Billion in Repos, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE), is probably what led to an intraday Wave 5 rollover upcycle due to strong program buying, as opposed to the start of an Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle.
Notice how similar HUI's 5 day intraday chart is to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.94% versus the XAU today/1-24, after being a very bearish -1.92% on 1-23, -1.69% on 1-22, -1.11% on 1-18.
HUI/XAU began a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle on Tuesday 1-22 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. The huge Wave A downcycle and likely start of a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-14-08.
Tomorrow, I'll be looking to day trade SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) "ultra" short via either SDS, QID, or (probably) UWM, and/or, I'll be looking to day trade HUI/XAU short via shorting the Gold Miners ETF GDX.
I'll wait for a significant/sharp intraday Wave A type decline and look to go short during an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle. A bearish large spike on the intraday candlestick chart is something to look for when the intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle peaks.
Downside gaps to watch tomorrow are GDX's downside gap at 48.19, the XAU's downside gap at 175.65, and, NEM's downside gap at 50.50, all created at today's open.
Since putting in a short term Wave A downcycle cycle low early on Tuesday 1-22, HUI/XAU have done an up down, and, are either still in a very short term Wave 3 upycle or are early in Wave 4 down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c, which is why I'll only be looking to day trade HUI/XAU short tomorrow, and won't hold a short position overnight, because, there should be a higher very short term Wave 5 cycle high a few sessions from now. I'll have to figure out at that time if the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (began Tuesday 1-22) is peaking (likely), since a large short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle will have occurred.
I day traded GDX short today (33 minute trade), shorting it at 50.22 and covering at 50.00. The large gap up by GDX made me cautious, and, GDX became oversold when I covered.
A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:25 PM
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