Trade the Cycles

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Downside Gaps To Watch Tomorrow For GDX, NEM, And The XAU

Downside gaps to watch tomorrow for GDX (Gold Miners ETF), NEM, and the XAU, are, brace yourself, 44.33 for GDX, 161.75 for the XAU, and, 47.39 for NEM, versus today's intraday Wave A downcycle cycle lows at 46.27 for GDX (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c), at 167.49 for the XAU, and, at 48.59 for NEM.

The cycle low targets for the expected Wave C downcycle tomorrow are 44 for GDX, 161 for the XAU, and 47 for NEM, which jives with today/1-23's very bearish NEM Lead Indicator, at -1.92% versus the XAU.

This means that GDX/HUI/XAU might experience -8%+ declines tomorrow at the session cycle low. The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish the past three sessions, at -1.92% versus the XAU today/on 1-23, at -1.69% on 1-22, and, at -1.11% on 1-18. There should be another great shorting opportunity early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

HUI fell a massive -6.67% intraday today in only a few hours, during an intraday Wave A downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. During the last few hours of today/1-23's session HUI did an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle, which looks like it'll peak early tomorrow, so, a great shorting opportunity is likely to arise early tomorrow. I'll be looking to short the Gold Miners ETF GDX.

A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.

HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

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