It Looks Like SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) Hit A Wave A Intermediate Term Cycle Low Today
It looks like SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) hit a Wave A intermediate term cycle low today, which is the start of a Cyclical Bear Market (SPX on 10-11-07, NDX in late October 2007, and, RUT in late July 2007). SPX (S & P 500) has a very large bullish inverse spike on today's candle right now, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
If SPX fills today's upside gap at 1325.19 (failed on the first attempt, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c), then, it's likely that SPX/NDX/RUT hit an intermediate term cycle low today.
Once I'm convinced that SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) hit a Wave A intermediate term cycle low, I'll look to trade them ultra long via the Ultra Long ETFs SSO, QLD, or UWM.
Obviously, in this very treacherous market it's wise (it's wise in any market before trading aggressively long, or, before trading long at all, if you're a risk averse trader) to wait for SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) to do a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle, that will trigger a 2% follow through (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline) monthly cycle buy signal, then look to go long during a short term Wave 2 downcycle, that should do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern for about 2-3 days.
The WMT Lead Indicator is very bullish again today, as it's been in recent weeks, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The vicious/huge HUI/XAU short term Wave A downcycle since Monday 1-14-08 probably bottomed early today, and, is probably/very likely the start of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. The huge HUI -15.15% decline in only five sessions time is probably a sign that a very important downcycle has begun. It's a very strong sell signal/indication.
I'm looking to short the Gold Miners ETF GDX some time in the next week or so, during a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, that might have begun early today/1-22.
A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
If SPX fills today's upside gap at 1325.19 (failed on the first attempt, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c), then, it's likely that SPX/NDX/RUT hit an intermediate term cycle low today.
Once I'm convinced that SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) hit a Wave A intermediate term cycle low, I'll look to trade them ultra long via the Ultra Long ETFs SSO, QLD, or UWM.
Obviously, in this very treacherous market it's wise (it's wise in any market before trading aggressively long, or, before trading long at all, if you're a risk averse trader) to wait for SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) to do a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle, that will trigger a 2% follow through (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline) monthly cycle buy signal, then look to go long during a short term Wave 2 downcycle, that should do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern for about 2-3 days.
The WMT Lead Indicator is very bullish again today, as it's been in recent weeks, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The vicious/huge HUI/XAU short term Wave A downcycle since Monday 1-14-08 probably bottomed early today, and, is probably/very likely the start of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. The huge HUI -15.15% decline in only five sessions time is probably a sign that a very important downcycle has begun. It's a very strong sell signal/indication.
I'm looking to short the Gold Miners ETF GDX some time in the next week or so, during a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, that might have begun early today/1-22.
A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:19 AM
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