The Vicious HUI/XAU Very Short Term Wave A Downcycle Is Probably The Start Of The Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market
The vicious HUI/XAU very short term Wave A downcycle since early Monday 1-14-08 is probably the start of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. The huge -12% decline (so far) in only three sessions time (on an intraday basis) is probably a sign that a very important downcycle has begun. It's a very strong sell signal/indication.
A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
I'm looking to short HUI/XAU via shorting the Gold Miners ETF GDX in the next few days, during a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, that appears to/might have begun mid session today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
I'll look to go short during an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle. The NEM Lead Indicator should be clearly intraday bearish when I go short, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
An HUI/XAU 2% follow through (after breaking the monthly upcycle trendline) monthly cycle (began 12-18-07) sell signal occurred early yesterday 1-16-08, see HUI's daily chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, see HUI's 5 day intraday chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
The US Dollar was up sharply yesterday, and, probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd.
SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), NDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), and RUT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) are still in an intermediate term downcycle (might have bottomed mid session today/1-17), that's probably the start of a Cyclical Bear Market.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
I'm looking to short HUI/XAU via shorting the Gold Miners ETF GDX in the next few days, during a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, that appears to/might have begun mid session today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
I'll look to go short during an intraday countertrend Wave B upcycle. The NEM Lead Indicator should be clearly intraday bearish when I go short, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
An HUI/XAU 2% follow through (after breaking the monthly upcycle trendline) monthly cycle (began 12-18-07) sell signal occurred early yesterday 1-16-08, see HUI's daily chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, see HUI's 5 day intraday chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
The US Dollar was up sharply yesterday, and, probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd.
SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), NDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), and RUT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) are still in an intermediate term downcycle (might have bottomed mid session today/1-17), that's probably the start of a Cyclical Bear Market.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:19 AM
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