HUI/XAU 2% Follow Through Monthly Cycle Sell Signal Occurred Today
An HUI/XAU 2% follow through (after breaking the monthly upcycle trendline) monthly cycle (began 12-18-07) sell signal occurred early today 1-16-08, see HUI's daily chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, see HUI's 5 day intraday chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
A vicious very short term Wave A downcycle/crash will probably bottom today for HUI/XAU, see HUI's 5 day intraday chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c. A very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle should occur for a few days, which will be a great opportunity to get the hell out of the precious metals sector, unless you're a true diehard buy and hold very long term investor.
Given the very volatile gold/silver stocks and silver (not so much gold, but, it obviously can be very volatile occasionally) timing is extremely important. Most gold writers have led many people off the deep end with their very amateurish and childish goofy agendas (professionals focus on risk, amateurs focus on reward).
Lives are literally being ruined today (were last year also and many times in previous years during major corrections) by the countless rank amateur nitwit gold writers, some of whom are also con artists. The FBI and/or SEC needs to take action against (at least a warning letter (do legitimate objective analysis) if not criminal and/or civil action in some cases) many of the con artist gold writers.
The US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, gold stocks have been underperforming gold since 11-7-07, which is a very bearish sign, and, the gold COT data is very bearish from a big picture perspective, etc.
Gold's action recently is exactly what one would expect near a very important cycle high.
In new annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html one can see that gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line (note that it went parabolic in mid 2005) is at $700ish, and, the primary Secular Bull Market (should last about 20 years, there should be two more Cyclical Bull markets, corresponding to Elliott Waves 3 and 5) uptrend line is at $490ish.
If you think that gold will keep rising in the parabolic fashion it has since mid 2005 for the next 10-15 years I have some very affordable prime real estate in Afghanistan for you, with a great view of all the action.
Gold should fall to $700ish or less in the next few months, and, in the next 12-18 months (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) gold should fall to $500-525.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
A vicious very short term Wave A downcycle/crash will probably bottom today for HUI/XAU, see HUI's 5 day intraday chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c. A very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle should occur for a few days, which will be a great opportunity to get the hell out of the precious metals sector, unless you're a true diehard buy and hold very long term investor.
Given the very volatile gold/silver stocks and silver (not so much gold, but, it obviously can be very volatile occasionally) timing is extremely important. Most gold writers have led many people off the deep end with their very amateurish and childish goofy agendas (professionals focus on risk, amateurs focus on reward).
Lives are literally being ruined today (were last year also and many times in previous years during major corrections) by the countless rank amateur nitwit gold writers, some of whom are also con artists. The FBI and/or SEC needs to take action against (at least a warning letter (do legitimate objective analysis) if not criminal and/or civil action in some cases) many of the con artist gold writers.
The US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, gold stocks have been underperforming gold since 11-7-07, which is a very bearish sign, and, the gold COT data is very bearish from a big picture perspective, etc.
Gold's action recently is exactly what one would expect near a very important cycle high.
In new annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html one can see that gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line (note that it went parabolic in mid 2005) is at $700ish, and, the primary Secular Bull Market (should last about 20 years, there should be two more Cyclical Bull markets, corresponding to Elliott Waves 3 and 5) uptrend line is at $490ish.
If you think that gold will keep rising in the parabolic fashion it has since mid 2005 for the next 10-15 years I have some very affordable prime real estate in Afghanistan for you, with a great view of all the action.
Gold should fall to $700ish or less in the next few months, and, in the next 12-18 months (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) gold should fall to $500-525.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:19 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home