Reliable Lead Indicator WMT Filled The Downside Gap At 46.90
Reliable lead indicator WMT filled the downside gap at 46.90 from 1-10-08, and, SPX, NDX, RUT are testing the potential intermediate term cycle lows that occurred on 1-9-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
It looks like HUI/XAU might have put in Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs yesterday (cycle began in late 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, peaking in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs as well as peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs.
Gold lags HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows, so gold might peak in rollover mode a few months after HUI/XAU, or, might put in a slightly higher bearish double top, as occurred in 2004 (January/April 2004 double top versus HUI Wave 3 long term cycle high on 12-2-03 and the XAU peaked 1-6-04).
I'm looking to short HUI/XAU this week (in a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle), after the monthly upcycle trendline since 12-18-07 clearly breaks down and does a very short term 2-3 day Wave A (-3%+ decline) downcycle.
The US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, gold stocks have been underperforming gold since 11-7-07, which is a very bearish sign, and, the gold COT data is very bearish from a big picture perspective, etc.
Gold's action recently is exactly what one would expect near a very important cycle high.
In new annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html one can see that gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line (note that it went parabolic in mid 2005) is at $700ish, and, the primary Secular Bull Market (should last about 20 years, there should be two more Cyclical Bull markets, corresponding to Elliott Waves 3 and 5) uptrend line is at $490ish.
If you think that gold will keep rising in the parabolic fashion it has since mid 2005 for the next 10-15 years I have some very affordable prime real estate in Afghanistan for you, with a great view of all the action.
Gold should fall to $700ish or less in the next few months, and, in the next 12-18 months (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) gold should fall to $500-525.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
It looks like HUI/XAU might have put in Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs yesterday (cycle began in late 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, peaking in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs as well as peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs.
Gold lags HUI/XAU at important cycle highs/lows, so gold might peak in rollover mode a few months after HUI/XAU, or, might put in a slightly higher bearish double top, as occurred in 2004 (January/April 2004 double top versus HUI Wave 3 long term cycle high on 12-2-03 and the XAU peaked 1-6-04).
I'm looking to short HUI/XAU this week (in a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle), after the monthly upcycle trendline since 12-18-07 clearly breaks down and does a very short term 2-3 day Wave A (-3%+ decline) downcycle.
The US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, gold stocks have been underperforming gold since 11-7-07, which is a very bearish sign, and, the gold COT data is very bearish from a big picture perspective, etc.
Gold's action recently is exactly what one would expect near a very important cycle high.
In new annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html one can see that gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line (note that it went parabolic in mid 2005) is at $700ish, and, the primary Secular Bull Market (should last about 20 years, there should be two more Cyclical Bull markets, corresponding to Elliott Waves 3 and 5) uptrend line is at $490ish.
If you think that gold will keep rising in the parabolic fashion it has since mid 2005 for the next 10-15 years I have some very affordable prime real estate in Afghanistan for you, with a great view of all the action.
Gold should fall to $700ish or less in the next few months, and, in the next 12-18 months (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) gold should fall to $500-525.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:34 AM
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