Watch Reliable Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT)
WMT might at least try to fill it's downside gap at 46.90 from yesterday 1-10-08's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. 46.90 is probably a bullish breakaway gap, but, one obviously must keep an eye on it, since WMT is a reliable S & P 500 (SPX)/market lead indicator.
The key to today's market is to see if reliable market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) fills (or clearly doesn't fill) it's downside gap at 46.90 from yesterday 1-10-08's open today or Monday.
Since the major averages (SPX/NDX/RUT) probably put in intermediate term cycle lows on Wednesday 1-9-08, with RUT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) probably putting in a major intermediate term cycle low (downcycle began in late July 2007), one would expect, based on the nature of cycles, that the rising bottom uptrend of the new intermediate term upcycle should begin relatively flat, so, SPX/NDX/RUT should put in cycle lows not too far above Wednesday 1-9-08's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. It's reasonable to expect the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) to fall to 1380-1390 today or Monday versus Wednesday 1-9-08's likely minor intermediate term cycle low at 1378.70.
The XAU might have put in a nearly perfect bearish double top today at 195.51 versus the 11-7-07 cycle high at 195.50, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
In new annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html one can see that gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line (note that it went parabolic in mid 2005) is at $700ish, and, the primary Secular Bull Market (should last about 20 years, there should be two more Cyclical Bull markets, corresponding to Elliott Waves 3 and 5) uptrend line is at $490ish.
If you think that gold will keep rising in the parabolic fashion it has since mid 2005 for the next 10-15 years I have some very affordable prime real estate in Afghanistan for you, with a great view of all the action.
Gold should fall to $700ish or less in the next few months, and, in the next 12-18 months (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) gold should fall to $500-525. Trust me, ignore the gold nitwits and con artists who don't understand (or are conning people) cycles, basic technical analysis (such as relatively flat primary trendlines), Elliott Wave patterns, the COT (Commitments of Traders) data, etc.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
The key to today's market is to see if reliable market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) fills (or clearly doesn't fill) it's downside gap at 46.90 from yesterday 1-10-08's open today or Monday.
Since the major averages (SPX/NDX/RUT) probably put in intermediate term cycle lows on Wednesday 1-9-08, with RUT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) probably putting in a major intermediate term cycle low (downcycle began in late July 2007), one would expect, based on the nature of cycles, that the rising bottom uptrend of the new intermediate term upcycle should begin relatively flat, so, SPX/NDX/RUT should put in cycle lows not too far above Wednesday 1-9-08's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. It's reasonable to expect the S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) to fall to 1380-1390 today or Monday versus Wednesday 1-9-08's likely minor intermediate term cycle low at 1378.70.
The XAU might have put in a nearly perfect bearish double top today at 195.51 versus the 11-7-07 cycle high at 195.50, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
In new annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html one can see that gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line (note that it went parabolic in mid 2005) is at $700ish, and, the primary Secular Bull Market (should last about 20 years, there should be two more Cyclical Bull markets, corresponding to Elliott Waves 3 and 5) uptrend line is at $490ish.
If you think that gold will keep rising in the parabolic fashion it has since mid 2005 for the next 10-15 years I have some very affordable prime real estate in Afghanistan for you, with a great view of all the action.
Gold should fall to $700ish or less in the next few months, and, in the next 12-18 months (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) gold should fall to $500-525. Trust me, ignore the gold nitwits and con artists who don't understand (or are conning people) cycles, basic technical analysis (such as relatively flat primary trendlines), Elliott Wave patterns, the COT (Commitments of Traders) data, etc.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:16 AM
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