The US Dollar And The Major Averages COT (Commitments Of Traders) Data Is Bullish
The US Dollar and major averages COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is bullish, see the last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm for the very bullish US Dollar COT data again this week (USD Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long in the five day period ending 1-8-08), and, scroll down over half way at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm to reach the mostly bullish (again this week, Commercial Traders traded significantly net long ) S & P 500 (SPX), NDX (NASDAQ 100), and Russell 2000 (RUT) COT data.
The US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, gold stocks have been underperforming gold since 11-7-07, which is a very bearish sign, and, the gold COT data is very bearish from a big picture perspective, etc.
In new annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html one can see that gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line (note that it went parabolic in mid 2005) is at $700ish, and, the primary Secular Bull Market (should last about 20 years, there should be two more Cyclical Bull markets, corresponding to Elliott Waves 3 and 5) uptrend line is at $490ish.
If you think that gold will keep rising in the parabolic fashion it has since mid 2005 for the next 10-15 years I have some very affordable prime real estate in Afghanistan for you, with a great view of all the action.
Gold should fall to $700ish or less in the next few months, and, in the next 12-18 months (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) gold should fall to $500-525.
Trust me, ignore the gold nitwits and con artists who don't understand (or are conning people) cycles, basic technical analysis (such as relatively flat primary trendlines), Elliott Wave patterns, the COT (Commitments of Traders) data, etc.
The XAU might have put in a nearly perfect bearish double top today at 195.51 versus the 11-7-07 cycle high at 195.50, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) appears to have put in a major intermediate term cycle low on 1-9-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, note the bullish very large inverse spike on 1-9's candle. SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), NDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) probably put in minor intermediate term cycle lows on 1-9-08. Note the bullish large inverse spike on 1-9's candle for SPX, NDX, and WMT.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The US Dollar probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, gold stocks have been underperforming gold since 11-7-07, which is a very bearish sign, and, the gold COT data is very bearish from a big picture perspective, etc.
In new annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html one can see that gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (since April 2001) uptrend line (note that it went parabolic in mid 2005) is at $700ish, and, the primary Secular Bull Market (should last about 20 years, there should be two more Cyclical Bull markets, corresponding to Elliott Waves 3 and 5) uptrend line is at $490ish.
If you think that gold will keep rising in the parabolic fashion it has since mid 2005 for the next 10-15 years I have some very affordable prime real estate in Afghanistan for you, with a great view of all the action.
Gold should fall to $700ish or less in the next few months, and, in the next 12-18 months (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) gold should fall to $500-525.
Trust me, ignore the gold nitwits and con artists who don't understand (or are conning people) cycles, basic technical analysis (such as relatively flat primary trendlines), Elliott Wave patterns, the COT (Commitments of Traders) data, etc.
The XAU might have put in a nearly perfect bearish double top today at 195.51 versus the 11-7-07 cycle high at 195.50, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) appears to have put in a major intermediate term cycle low on 1-9-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, note the bullish very large inverse spike on 1-9's candle. SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), NDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), WMT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) probably put in minor intermediate term cycle lows on 1-9-08. Note the bullish large inverse spike on 1-9's candle for SPX, NDX, and WMT.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
3:05 PM
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