SPX (S & P 500) And NDX (NASDAQ 100) Might Have Put In Minor Intermediate Term Cycle Lows Today
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) might have put in minor intermediate term cycle lows today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Both have bullish large inverse spikes on today's candle (there's an even larger bearish spike on today's candle also), but, the candles are black, indicating a bearish close below the open. However, the WMT Lead Indicator was very bullish again today, at +1.62% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-16 and at +1.06% on 1-15.
Looking at the 5 day intraday chart for SPX, an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern occurred near session's end (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c), so, there could be a good entry point for trading SPX (or NDX, RUT) long (my choice is via SSO, the Ultra Long SPX ETF) early tomorrow.
Keep in mind that SPX probably entered a Cyclical Bear Market on 10-11-07, NDX probably did so in late October 2007, and, RUT probably did so in late July 2007.
NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) didn't fill it's downside gap at 1846.09 today, but, came very close. NDX will obviously have to either fill that downside gap or convince me that it's a bullish breakaway gap before I consider trading NDX long via QLD.
RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) put in a bullish slightly higher double bottom cycle low today at 690.38 versus the 1-9-08 potential major intermediate term cycle low at 689.92, but, RUT has a large bearish spike on today's candle.
I suspect that the 1-9-08 cycle low is the bottom, so, I might day trade RUT long tomorrow via the Ultra Long RUT ETF UWM. RUT's candle is white today, indicating a bullish close above the open.
One should wait for SPX/NDX/RUT to do a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle, that will trigger a 2% follow through buy signal (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline), before trading them aggressively long (wait for a 2-3 day Wave 2 downcycle).
I addressed HUI/XAU/gold in an earlier post, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/01/huixau-2-follow-through-monthly-cycle.html. A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
The US Dollar was up sharply today, and, probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd.
Trust me, ignore the gold nitwits and con artists who don't understand (or are conning people) cycles, basic technical analysis (such as relatively flat primary trendlines), Elliott Wave patterns, the COT (Commitments of Traders) data, etc.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06 (the long term upcycle from June 2006 to 11-7-07 was an anemic rollover upcycle, in which HUI/XAU were underwater until October 2007 versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Looking at the 5 day intraday chart for SPX, an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern occurred near session's end (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c), so, there could be a good entry point for trading SPX (or NDX, RUT) long (my choice is via SSO, the Ultra Long SPX ETF) early tomorrow.
Keep in mind that SPX probably entered a Cyclical Bear Market on 10-11-07, NDX probably did so in late October 2007, and, RUT probably did so in late July 2007.
NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) didn't fill it's downside gap at 1846.09 today, but, came very close. NDX will obviously have to either fill that downside gap or convince me that it's a bullish breakaway gap before I consider trading NDX long via QLD.
RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) put in a bullish slightly higher double bottom cycle low today at 690.38 versus the 1-9-08 potential major intermediate term cycle low at 689.92, but, RUT has a large bearish spike on today's candle.
I suspect that the 1-9-08 cycle low is the bottom, so, I might day trade RUT long tomorrow via the Ultra Long RUT ETF UWM. RUT's candle is white today, indicating a bullish close above the open.
One should wait for SPX/NDX/RUT to do a strong multi day short term Wave 1 upcycle, that will trigger a 2% follow through buy signal (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline), before trading them aggressively long (wait for a 2-3 day Wave 2 downcycle).
I addressed HUI/XAU/gold in an earlier post, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/01/huixau-2-follow-through-monthly-cycle.html. A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
The US Dollar was up sharply today, and, probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007 after being in a Bear Market since late 2005, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd.
Trust me, ignore the gold nitwits and con artists who don't understand (or are conning people) cycles, basic technical analysis (such as relatively flat primary trendlines), Elliott Wave patterns, the COT (Commitments of Traders) data, etc.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $490ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $490-520 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market basically began 5-11-06 (the long term upcycle from June 2006 to 11-7-07 was an anemic rollover upcycle, in which HUI/XAU were underwater until October 2007 versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs), see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 210-230 for HUI and at 90-95 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:50 PM
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