.......Major World Stock Markets Are Crashing
Major world stock markets are crashing, see http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080121/world_markets.html. It looks like tomorrow will be a bloodbath in the US, barring a 50 to 75 basis (0.50% to 0.75%) point Fed Funds rate cut by the Fed, and, even that might not prevent a bloodbath.
As far as the precious metals, one might see HUI/XAU down more than -10%, and, gold might plunge -$30, -$40, -$50+ tomorrow, and, silver might crash over -$1.00. The US Dollar was up sharply today. Some gold stocks were down -10%+ and even -20%+ today in Canada.
The vicious/huge HUI/XAU short term Wave A downcycle since early Monday 1-14-08 is probably/very likely the start of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. The huge -13.54% decline (so far) in only four sessions time (on an intraday basis) is probably a sign that a very important downcycle has begun. It's a very strong sell signal/indication.
A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
As far as the precious metals, one might see HUI/XAU down more than -10%, and, gold might plunge -$30, -$40, -$50+ tomorrow, and, silver might crash over -$1.00. The US Dollar was up sharply today. Some gold stocks were down -10%+ and even -20%+ today in Canada.
The vicious/huge HUI/XAU short term Wave A downcycle since early Monday 1-14-08 is probably/very likely the start of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. The huge -13.54% decline (so far) in only four sessions time (on an intraday basis) is probably a sign that a very important downcycle has begun. It's a very strong sell signal/indication.
A 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market probably began on Monday 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU, which is Wave 2 down of the Secular 20 yearish Bull Market that began in late 2000 for HUI/XAU, began in April 2001 for gold, and, began in late 2001 for silver. Gold lags HUI/XAU and silver lags gold.
HUI/XAU peaked in rollover mode versus the 11-7-07 cycle highs, and, peaked in dramatic rollover mode versus the 5-11-06 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:42 PM
3 Comments:
Hey Joe,
Just wanted to stop in and say hello. We held our QID all the way up into the panic Full Moon werewolf action this morning. Really wondering if the FED will try to kill off our Bear Party early with a surprise rate cut. Its crossed my mind this weekend. But as I write this, Nasdaq futures are sinking -105 .. Dow futures just hit -650 .. which is mindblowing action to the uninitiated, I am sure. Larry Kudlow must be over in St Patricks Cathedral all night, praying the stations of the cross, for mercy from Uncle Ben. There is no relief for the fully invested these past few weeks.
On the other hand, all they had to do was take in a few words of wisdom from Joe F and they would have gotten some much needed rest . Man, its been downright inspiring to be living through this. Holding all cash except for the QID position and having disposed of all the gold holdings before the slide got underway, its really felt like God looked out for us here. I would like to thank you for all the moral support you have been offering us formerly lonely gold/equity bears, back when selling was considered the foolish move. I guess this is one of those cases where he who laughs last, laughs best. -- So, here's to you Joe F. You get the Five-Star award from a guy who knew the difference. Good trading to you. Stay safe out there.
Thanks, M
By
Anonymous, at 1:43 AM
Thanks for the kind words M. It's rigorously applying the great Trade the Cycles market timing system that makes it possible.
It looks like SPX/NDX/RUT hit a Wave A intermediate term cycle low today, which is the start of a Cyclical Bear Market.
SPX (S & P 500) has a very large bullish inverse spike on today's candle right now. If SPX fills today's upside gap at 1325.19, then, it's likely that SPX/NDX/RUT hit an intermediate term cycle low today.
The WMT Lead Indicator is very bullish again today, as it's been in recent weeks. Good luck.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:04 AM
I agree on the last point of a possible low for the stock indices. This has been like a traders dream. About an hour and a half before the NY open, we put an order in to sell our QID. About a half hour later we got that surprise 3/4% rate cut, but QID still managed to open up like +10% .... they gave us the opening price of $53.14 on the AMEX. Then the doggone thing started sliding. I don't know if it will fill that gap or not. But if you're right, then it certainly would be inevitable. ...... Ahhh, glad we caught that gap.
Can you believe those toads are calling for another 1/2 % cut next week. I just heard Goldman is calling for that kind of number. I can't believe how fast they are already looking for the next cut. Its like drug addiction for these people. I am also stunned how they tacked on $40 to the gold price in only half a day here. The govt seems to have no respect for the dollar anymore. I have to wonder what the ceiling is on this rate cut euphoria for gold here. I would have felt better about going in for a trade, if we had dumped down to the low $700s on this last move.
See you on the next round. -- M
By
Anonymous, at 9:37 AM
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