..............Potential Trades For Tuesday
The natural gas ETF UNG (6%ish yield) is a potential long trade on Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ung. It's doing a short term Wave 4 downcycle (might bottom Tuesday) of the monthly upcycle since putting in an intermediate term cycle low at 33.58 on 12-27-07, which is a slightly higher bullish double bottom with the intermediate term cycle low at 33.23 on 9-4-07, which shows up on the second/weekly view candlestick chart, but not on the first daily candlestick chart, for some weird reason.
The natural gas COT (Commitments Of Traders) data points to strength/a short term Wave 5 upcycle beginning this week, because, the Commercial Traders traded significantly net long, see the fifth data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deanymesf.htm. Crude Oil, Light Sweet, COT data is near the bottom at the link above, and, supports a likely short term countertrend Wave B upcycle next week. I discuss oil two paragraphs down.
Since the double bottom at 33.58 on 12-27-07 is slightly higher than the cycle low at 33.23 on 9-4-07, it's a more bullish uptrending double bottom than if the 12-27-07 cycle low had been a slightly lower downtrending double bottom.
Interestingly, oil looks like it's a short from a big picture perspective, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uso, but, obviously wait for a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle before shorting it, if that's your intention. The 11 month long term rollover upcycle since January 2007 appears to be a multi year Cyclical Bull Market peaking in dramatic rollover mode (might have peaked at 79.09 in late December 2007 (note the bearish large spike), note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since January 2007, with all the price points labeled), versus the prior peak at 74.60 in July 2006.
Novagold (NG, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ng) is a potential long trade next week. NG should clearly/decisively break it's short term Wave 4 downcycle trendline before being held overnight. I might day trade it on Tuesday.
Concerning the major averages COT (Commitments Of Traders) data, the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) COT data is the most bullish (very bullish), followed by the modestly bullish S & P 500 (SPX) COT data, and, the mixed Russell 2000 (RUT) COT data, scroll down halfway+ at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm to see the COT data, with SPX's being the closest to the top.
The previous two weeks the Russell 2000 (RUT) COT data was the most bullish, so, I may trade RUT (ultra) long via UWM or NDX (ultra) long via QLD, with trading SPX (ultra) long via SSO being the least likely trade next week of the three.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
The natural gas COT (Commitments Of Traders) data points to strength/a short term Wave 5 upcycle beginning this week, because, the Commercial Traders traded significantly net long, see the fifth data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deanymesf.htm. Crude Oil, Light Sweet, COT data is near the bottom at the link above, and, supports a likely short term countertrend Wave B upcycle next week. I discuss oil two paragraphs down.
Since the double bottom at 33.58 on 12-27-07 is slightly higher than the cycle low at 33.23 on 9-4-07, it's a more bullish uptrending double bottom than if the 12-27-07 cycle low had been a slightly lower downtrending double bottom.
Interestingly, oil looks like it's a short from a big picture perspective, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uso, but, obviously wait for a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle before shorting it, if that's your intention. The 11 month long term rollover upcycle since January 2007 appears to be a multi year Cyclical Bull Market peaking in dramatic rollover mode (might have peaked at 79.09 in late December 2007 (note the bearish large spike), note the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since January 2007, with all the price points labeled), versus the prior peak at 74.60 in July 2006.
Novagold (NG, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ng) is a potential long trade next week. NG should clearly/decisively break it's short term Wave 4 downcycle trendline before being held overnight. I might day trade it on Tuesday.
Concerning the major averages COT (Commitments Of Traders) data, the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) COT data is the most bullish (very bullish), followed by the modestly bullish S & P 500 (SPX) COT data, and, the mixed Russell 2000 (RUT) COT data, scroll down halfway+ at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm to see the COT data, with SPX's being the closest to the top.
The previous two weeks the Russell 2000 (RUT) COT data was the most bullish, so, I may trade RUT (ultra) long via UWM or NDX (ultra) long via QLD, with trading SPX (ultra) long via SSO being the least likely trade next week of the three.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
Labels: SPX
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:17 AM
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