HUI/XAU's Short Term Wave C Downcycle Is Relatively Flat
HUI/XAU's short term Wave C downcycle's (since early Friday 1-25) downtrend is relatively flat so far,
see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Since the flat part of the downcycle is lasting a relatively long time that points to a substantial decline, because, it's a large downcycle, which isn't surprising given that the short term Wave A downcycle brought a decline of -15.15% for HUI, from 489.45 on 1-14-08 to 415.35 on 1-22-08.
A preliminary but reasonable target for the short term Wave C cycle low is 161 for the XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau), shortly after filling it's downside gap at 161.75 (important cycle highs/lows tend to occur shortly after gap filling action is completed, other downside gaps at 143.64, 133.19 will get filled later), versus it's short term Wave A cycle low at 167.49 on 1-23-08 and it's current level at 188ish.
HUI's preliminary short term Wave C cycle low target range is 380-400 versus it's short term Wave A cycle low at 415.35 on 1-22-08. HUI's historical data (at Yahoo) shows few gaps, which is why I rarely discuss HUI gaps.
I think HUI often is opened at the previous session's level THEN gaps up or down versus the XAU, NEM, etc and most indexes/stocks experiencing gaps at the open. I'll take a look at HUI's historical data (at Yahoo) to try to determine gaps that occurred just after the open.
Reliable lead indicator NEM might bottom at 47ish, shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.39 (other downside gaps at 42.29, 41.52 might get filled later).
There might be a good entry point to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. There's a good chance that I'll short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, today, since HUI has trended down since early last Friday, when a short term Wave C downcycle probably began, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.55% versus the XAU yesterday/1-29, but, is modestly bullish right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high at 191.58 on 1-25-08, and, probably put in a very short term countertrend Wave B cycle high at 190.09 yesterday/on 1-29-08.
The 5 day Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (was neutral at +0.00% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday/1-29), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Since the flat part of the downcycle is lasting a relatively long time that points to a substantial decline, because, it's a large downcycle, which isn't surprising given that the short term Wave A downcycle brought a decline of -15.15% for HUI, from 489.45 on 1-14-08 to 415.35 on 1-22-08.
A preliminary but reasonable target for the short term Wave C cycle low is 161 for the XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau), shortly after filling it's downside gap at 161.75 (important cycle highs/lows tend to occur shortly after gap filling action is completed, other downside gaps at 143.64, 133.19 will get filled later), versus it's short term Wave A cycle low at 167.49 on 1-23-08 and it's current level at 188ish.
HUI's preliminary short term Wave C cycle low target range is 380-400 versus it's short term Wave A cycle low at 415.35 on 1-22-08. HUI's historical data (at Yahoo) shows few gaps, which is why I rarely discuss HUI gaps.
I think HUI often is opened at the previous session's level THEN gaps up or down versus the XAU, NEM, etc and most indexes/stocks experiencing gaps at the open. I'll take a look at HUI's historical data (at Yahoo) to try to determine gaps that occurred just after the open.
Reliable lead indicator NEM might bottom at 47ish, shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.39 (other downside gaps at 42.29, 41.52 might get filled later).
There might be a good entry point to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. There's a good chance that I'll short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, today, since HUI has trended down since early last Friday, when a short term Wave C downcycle probably began, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.55% versus the XAU yesterday/1-29, but, is modestly bullish right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high at 191.58 on 1-25-08, and, probably put in a very short term countertrend Wave B cycle high at 190.09 yesterday/on 1-29-08.
The 5 day Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (was neutral at +0.00% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday/1-29), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:31 AM
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