The Market Quickly Bitchslapped The Large Post Fed Rate Cut Spike!
The market quickly bitchslapped the large post Fed rate cut transitory spike (lasted less than an hour), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, with SPX (S & P 500) closing down -6.49 points after being up +23 to +24 points less than an hour earlier.
This might surprise some of you, but, the large post Fed rate cut transitory spike, combined with the fact that it so quickly got bitchslapped in a sharp intraday Wave A downcycle (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), gives me even more confidence about what's going on with both the major averages and with HUI/XAU.
Here we go. SPX (S & P 500) and RUT (Russell 2000) probably put in short term Wave 1 cycle highs in rollover mode today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. Note the bearish very large spikes on today's bearish black candle, which indicates a bearish close below the open.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) is underperforming (and/or lagging) SPX/RUT, having put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on Friday 1-25, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx. Today's cycle high was a countertrend Wave B cycle high of a short term Wave 2 downcycle.
I'm even more confident now that SPX/NDX/RUT entered a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle last week, on 1-23 for NDX/SPX and on 1-22 for RUT. I'll feel better about going "ultra" long RUT via UWM in a few days.
As I said before, likely Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.79% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-30, so, a rebound/some strength is likely early tomorrow, after possibly more weakness at the open/very early on.
Concerning HUI/XAU, today's cycle high was probably the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 1-25's cycle high, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
HUI/XAU might have put in bearish slightly higher double top cycle highs today versus the 1-25 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
Obviously, until HUI/XAU's short term countertrend Wave B upcycle clearly breaks down I'll be looking to day trade only and won't hold a short position (short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF) overnight.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a bearish large spike on it's intraday chart near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, so, the sharp intraday Wave A downcycle that began less than an hour before session's end, might not have bottomed yet.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.85% versus the XAU today/on 1-30, which jives with a rebound/some likely strength early tomorrow, after possibly more weakness at the open/very early on.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high today/on 1-30-08.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
This might surprise some of you, but, the large post Fed rate cut transitory spike, combined with the fact that it so quickly got bitchslapped in a sharp intraday Wave A downcycle (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), gives me even more confidence about what's going on with both the major averages and with HUI/XAU.
Here we go. SPX (S & P 500) and RUT (Russell 2000) probably put in short term Wave 1 cycle highs in rollover mode today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut. Note the bearish very large spikes on today's bearish black candle, which indicates a bearish close below the open.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) is underperforming (and/or lagging) SPX/RUT, having put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high on Friday 1-25, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx. Today's cycle high was a countertrend Wave B cycle high of a short term Wave 2 downcycle.
I'm even more confident now that SPX/NDX/RUT entered a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle last week, on 1-23 for NDX/SPX and on 1-22 for RUT. I'll feel better about going "ultra" long RUT via UWM in a few days.
As I said before, likely Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.79% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-30, so, a rebound/some strength is likely early tomorrow, after possibly more weakness at the open/very early on.
Concerning HUI/XAU, today's cycle high was probably the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode versus 1-25's cycle high, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
HUI/XAU might have put in bearish slightly higher double top cycle highs today versus the 1-25 cycle highs, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
Obviously, until HUI/XAU's short term countertrend Wave B upcycle clearly breaks down I'll be looking to day trade only and won't hold a short position (short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF) overnight.
Reliable lead indicator NEM put in a bearish large spike on it's intraday chart near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, so, the sharp intraday Wave A downcycle that began less than an hour before session's end, might not have bottomed yet.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.85% versus the XAU today/on 1-30, which jives with a rebound/some likely strength early tomorrow, after possibly more weakness at the open/very early on.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high today/on 1-30-08.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:17 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home