Trade the Cycles

Friday, February 01, 2008

SPX's (S & P 500) Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle Probably/Might Have Peaked Early Today

SPX's (S & P 500) Short Term Wave 1 upcycle since 1-23-08 (Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle began) probably/might have peaked early today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX has done an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern on the daily candlestick chart. SPX's short term Wave 2 downcycle will probably bottom Monday or Tuesday.

I did a good 16 minute 35 second GDX (Gold Miners ETF) day trade today, shorting it at 50.80 and covering it at 49.948. HUI's intraday crash (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c) might point to more severe weakness today and/or Monday. Watch downside gaps for NEM (50.50), GDX (48.19), and the XAU (175.65) that should get filled in the next few sessions.

I'll be looking to short GDX again today, but, HUI has done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since late Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c, so, one has to be careful about shorting GDX today. Also, the NEM Lead Indicator is bullish intraday right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.

Gold's getting whacked today, see the gold ETF GLD at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.87% versus the XAU yesterday/on 1-31.

Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .




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