It Was A Short Lived Countertrend Wave B Upcycle As Expected
It was a short lived countertrend Wave B upcycle as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
It looks like SPX (S & P 500)/the major averages (NDX, RUT, etc) might put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low tomorrow, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. WMT/SPX have a black candle on 2-6 with a large bearish spike.
I'll be looking to go ultra long the market/SPX/NDX/RUT via SSO, QLD, or UWM once a short term Wave 2 cycle low occurs.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
I was looking to short NEM late today, which probably has more downside than GDX right now, because, it's probably leading to the downside, and, because NEM is farther from it's downside gap at 49.48 than GDX is from it's downside gap at 46.75, see NEM's 5 day intraday chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
I didn't go short because both the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators became much less bearish (turned briefly bullish) late in the session, see the NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem, and, see the WMT Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.21% versus the XAU today/on 2-6, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.73% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 2-6.
I'll be looking to go short NEM early tomorrow, and, there's a good chance that I'll cover shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 49.48 from today/2-6's open.
There’s a very large bearish spike on NEM’s intraday chart near session’s end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. There’s a very large bearish spike on HUI/XAU/NEM’s (black/bearish) daily candle on 2-6, see NEM's at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
The US Dollar was up again today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar appears to have put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
NEM's upside gap at 50.91 got filled today/2-6, the XAU's upside gap at 180.24 remains unfilled, GDX's upside gap at 48.15 remains unfilled, HUI's upside gap at 438.93 got filled (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c), all were created yesterday/2-5. HUI has an upside gap at 451.56, GDX has an upside gap at 49.15, NEM has an upside gap at 53.23, all created 2-4.
NEM has a downside gap at 49.48, HUI has a downside gap at 425.04, XAU has a downside gap at 173.22, GDX has a downside gap at 46.75, GLD has a downside gap at 87.68, all from today/2-6's open. There are downside gaps for NEM at 47.39, GDX at 44.33, 42.87, XAU at 161.75.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has downside gaps at 46.75, 44.33, and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Also, watch the XAU's downside gaps at 173.22 and 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gaps at 49.48 and 47.39.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
It looks like SPX (S & P 500)/the major averages (NDX, RUT, etc) might put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low tomorrow, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. WMT/SPX have a black candle on 2-6 with a large bearish spike.
I'll be looking to go ultra long the market/SPX/NDX/RUT via SSO, QLD, or UWM once a short term Wave 2 cycle low occurs.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
I was looking to short NEM late today, which probably has more downside than GDX right now, because, it's probably leading to the downside, and, because NEM is farther from it's downside gap at 49.48 than GDX is from it's downside gap at 46.75, see NEM's 5 day intraday chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
I didn't go short because both the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators became much less bearish (turned briefly bullish) late in the session, see the NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem, and, see the WMT Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.21% versus the XAU today/on 2-6, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.73% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 2-6.
I'll be looking to go short NEM early tomorrow, and, there's a good chance that I'll cover shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 49.48 from today/2-6's open.
There’s a very large bearish spike on NEM’s intraday chart near session’s end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. There’s a very large bearish spike on HUI/XAU/NEM’s (black/bearish) daily candle on 2-6, see NEM's at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
The US Dollar was up again today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar appears to have put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
NEM's upside gap at 50.91 got filled today/2-6, the XAU's upside gap at 180.24 remains unfilled, GDX's upside gap at 48.15 remains unfilled, HUI's upside gap at 438.93 got filled (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c), all were created yesterday/2-5. HUI has an upside gap at 451.56, GDX has an upside gap at 49.15, NEM has an upside gap at 53.23, all created 2-4.
NEM has a downside gap at 49.48, HUI has a downside gap at 425.04, XAU has a downside gap at 173.22, GDX has a downside gap at 46.75, GLD has a downside gap at 87.68, all from today/2-6's open. There are downside gaps for NEM at 47.39, GDX at 44.33, 42.87, XAU at 161.75.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has downside gaps at 46.75, 44.33, and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Also, watch the XAU's downside gaps at 173.22 and 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gaps at 49.48 and 47.39.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:40 PM
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