Trade the Cycles

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

How About The US Dollar's Spike Move Today!

How about the US Dollar's spike move today!, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar appears to have put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).

The US Dollar COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is very bullish, see the last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm, since the US Dollar Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long for the fourth time in the last five weeks.

Think any of the gold pumper nitwits and con artists will point out the fact that the US Dollar has probably put in a very important cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd)? Are they any better than the mortgage lenders who didn't adequately point out the risks of adjustable rate mortgages, whether they were subprime or not? Their irresponsible and corrupt
behavior will result in substantial losses for many gold investors and traders over the next 12-24 months, and, in bull markets also, because they rarely if ever address risk (rank amateurs focus on reward, professionals focus on risk).

The massive monetary deflation resulting from the real estate and stock market bear market is a huge negative, and, is the main reason why gold will soon enter a Bear Market, if it hasn't already. HUI/XAU probably/very likely entered a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-14-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

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1 Comments:

  • Sean left the following message that I allowed, but, it didn't show up for some weird reason, at least not yet.

    "Please keep up your analysis of the $USD going forward. (waves and cot) Very helpful. Thanks."

    I plan to keep up with the $USD analysis Sean. Thanks for the kind words. You're welcome.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 7:23 AM  

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