Trade the Cycles

Thursday, February 07, 2008

The NEM Lead Indicator Turned Very Bullish Early Today

The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bullish early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem, which is why I didn't short NEM.

NEM barely missed filling it's downside gap at 49.48 shortly after the open, with a cycle low at 49.50, and, is making another attempt as I write this. GDX filled yesterday's downside gap at 46.75 shortly after the open.

My focus is on the major averages right now, which might have put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

I'm waiting for reliable lead indicator Walmart (WMT) to break out of it's intraday triangle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, and, for the Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator to turn clearly bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

WMT has a very large bullish inverse spike on today's intraday chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. It looks like the major averages probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low early today, but, refer to the previous paragraph for what I'm looking to see.

I'm looking to go long the Ultra Long RUT (Russell 2000) ETF UWM, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?uwm. I might trade QLD or SSO instead, the Ultra Long NDX and SPX ETFs.

Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .



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