Trade the Cycles

Saturday, February 09, 2008

NDX (NASDAQ 100) Has The Worst Looking Chart Since 1-23-08

NDX (NASDAQ 100) has the worst looking chart since 1-23-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx. SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) have healthy looking Wave B minor intermediate term upcycles since 1-23-08 and 1-22-08 respectively.

SPX and RUT clearly hit 2%+ follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signals (after breaking the intermediate term downcycle trendline), whereas, NDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) at best hit a borderline 2%+ follow through buy signal. It's possible that NDX might take out it's 1-23-08 cycle low early next week, which means that NDX (NASDAQ 100) might still be in a Wave A intermediate term downcycle (began late October 2007).

Since SPX/NDX/RUT are (very likely) in a Cyclical Bear Market now, downside risk is obviously greater, and, funky unhealthy looking upcycles, such as NDX's since 1-23-08 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), will tend to lead to better shorting opportunities than would occur in a Cyclical Bull Market.

A Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

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