.............Not Good News For Longs Today
All one needs to do is to look at today's very bearish Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -1.75% versus SPX ( S & P 500), that got more bearish as the session progressed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, to know that Monday is likely to bring severe weakness for the major averages and most sectors.
Also, SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in the upcycle that began early on Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, which is obviously a bearish sign/indication.
Today's late anemic upcycle was actually a countertrend Wave B move, and, looking at the 5 day intraday chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, it appears likely that yesterday's cycle low will be taken out, which would mean that a short term Wave 2 downcycle remains in effect for SPX ( S & P 500), and, possibly also for NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) and RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut).
I day traded UWM (Ultra Long RUT (Russell 2000) ETF) late today, exiting at 49.90 versus an entry point at 49.75. On Monday I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra short via SDS, QID, or TWM.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) are in a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08, that might have peaked today based on the XAU's Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since early yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
However, looking at HUI's 5 day intraday chart, HUI has done an up down up pattern since early Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, HUI/XAU's very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle might have one more sharp Wave 5 upcycle, after a likely sharp Wave 4 downcycle on Monday.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.51% versus the XAU today/on 2-8.
I'll look to day trade GDX, NEM, or GLD short early on Monday, and, might hold a short position overnight if the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators are clearly bearish.
The NEM Lead Indicator was +0.75% versus the XAU on 2-7, was -0.21% on 2-6, and, was +1.08% on 2-5.
NEM filled it's downside gap at 49.48 yesterday, GDX filled it's downside gap at 46.75 yesterday, the XAU filled it's downside gap at 173.22 yesterday, and, HUI didn't fill it's downside gap at 325.04 yet.
The XAU has a downside gap from today 2-8's open at 174.88, HUI has a downside gap from today 2-8's open at 428.45, GDX has a downside gap from today 2-8's open at 46.86, and, GLD has a downside gap from today 2-8's open at 89.85.
The XAU's upside gap at 180.24 was filled today/2-8, GDX's upside gap at 48.15 was filled today/2-8, they were created 2-5. HUI has an upside gap at 451.56, GDX has an upside gap at 49.15, NEM has an upside gap at 53.23, all created 2-4, which should be watched early next week.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Also, watch the XAU's downside gap at 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gap at 47.39.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
For the fourth time in five weeks, the savvy non contrarian US Dollar Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long, see the last/sixth data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm.
The US Dollar was up sharply yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
Have you seen a single gold writer point out the fact that the US Dollar appears to have put in a very important bottom/cycle low? Goofiness and corruption tends to become rampant near very important cycle highs.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Also, SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) failed to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in the upcycle that began early on Thursday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, which is obviously a bearish sign/indication.
Today's late anemic upcycle was actually a countertrend Wave B move, and, looking at the 5 day intraday chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, it appears likely that yesterday's cycle low will be taken out, which would mean that a short term Wave 2 downcycle remains in effect for SPX ( S & P 500), and, possibly also for NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) and RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut).
I day traded UWM (Ultra Long RUT (Russell 2000) ETF) late today, exiting at 49.90 versus an entry point at 49.75. On Monday I'll be looking to day trade the major averages ultra short via SDS, QID, or TWM.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) are in a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08, that might have peaked today based on the XAU's Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern since early yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
However, looking at HUI's 5 day intraday chart, HUI has done an up down up pattern since early Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, HUI/XAU's very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle might have one more sharp Wave 5 upcycle, after a likely sharp Wave 4 downcycle on Monday.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.51% versus the XAU today/on 2-8.
I'll look to day trade GDX, NEM, or GLD short early on Monday, and, might hold a short position overnight if the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators are clearly bearish.
The NEM Lead Indicator was +0.75% versus the XAU on 2-7, was -0.21% on 2-6, and, was +1.08% on 2-5.
NEM filled it's downside gap at 49.48 yesterday, GDX filled it's downside gap at 46.75 yesterday, the XAU filled it's downside gap at 173.22 yesterday, and, HUI didn't fill it's downside gap at 325.04 yet.
The XAU has a downside gap from today 2-8's open at 174.88, HUI has a downside gap from today 2-8's open at 428.45, GDX has a downside gap from today 2-8's open at 46.86, and, GLD has a downside gap from today 2-8's open at 89.85.
The XAU's upside gap at 180.24 was filled today/2-8, GDX's upside gap at 48.15 was filled today/2-8, they were created 2-5. HUI has an upside gap at 451.56, GDX has an upside gap at 49.15, NEM has an upside gap at 53.23, all created 2-4, which should be watched early next week.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Also, watch the XAU's downside gap at 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gap at 47.39.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
For the fourth time in five weeks, the savvy non contrarian US Dollar Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long, see the last/sixth data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm.
The US Dollar was up sharply yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
Have you seen a single gold writer point out the fact that the US Dollar appears to have put in a very important bottom/cycle low? Goofiness and corruption tends to become rampant near very important cycle highs.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:05 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home