Trade the Cycles

Thursday, February 07, 2008

The United States Oil ETF (USO) Looks Like A Good Short Tomorrow

The United States Oil ETF (USO) looks like a good short tomorrow. In the 5 day intraday chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=uso&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, one can see that the very short term upcycle that began early today was rolling over near session's end, and, looks like it'll do a Wave A down type move early tomorrow. After the Wave A down move occurs one can look to short USO in the countertrend Wave B upcycle.

USO is in a short term Wave C downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?USO, and, should bottom at 64-66 in the next few days versus the short term Wave A cycle low at 68.63. Today's close was 69.80, which was near the session cycle high at 70.07. So, for the next few days one can probably trade USO short.

The USO Put/Call Ratio as of today/2-7-08 is a stratospheric 1775/149 = 11.913, see http://www.cboe.com/data/mktstat5.aspx#USO, which is one of the most extreme levels of fear/highest Put/Call Ratios I've ever seen. When a Put/Call Ratio reveals an extreme level of fear that usually points to severe weakness in the near future (Put/Call Ratio becomes non contrarian at extreme fear), which jives with USO's current short term Wave C downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?USO.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home