.......Good News For The Major Averages Today
It looks like SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut), all hit short term Wave 2 cycle lows last Thursday 2-7, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.13% versus SPX (S & P 500) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Based on SPX's intraday chart some weakness is likely early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX peaked and put in a large bearish spike near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The healthiest looking chart since 2-7's likely short term Wave 2 cycle low is NDX's (NASDAQ 100), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, I'll be looking to trade NDX ultra long via QLD early tomorrow.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
I traded GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short today, shorting it at 48.5701 and covering it at 48.50. If it wasn't for the modest rollover action today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, the trade would have been much better, but, I still made a significant profit, though the percentage gain was obviously very modest.
Tomorrow I'll be looking to short GDX again early on. GDX peaked about two hours before session's end, and, appears to have entered a Wave C type decline near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.18% versus the XAU today/on 2-11, and, was a very bearish -1.51% on Friday 2-8.
HUI did a Wave 5 move today, for the upcycle that began early last Wednesday 2-6 (the XAU's began early Thursday 2-7), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Now that HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) has completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up very short term upcycle (XAU experienced rollover action today), which is a countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08, HUI/XAU have probably entered, or soon will, the final very short term Wave C downcycle of the short term Wave C since 1-30-08, which jives with the very bearish NEM Lead Indicator the past two days. It was a very bearish -1.18% versus the XAU today/on 2-11, and, was a very bearish -1.51% on Friday 2-8.
The XAU has a downside gap at 174.88, HUI has downside gaps at 428.45 and 425.04, GDX has a downside gap at 46.86, and, GLD has a downside gap at 89.85.
HUI has an upside gap at 451.56, GDX has an upside gap at 49.15, NEM has an upside gap at 53.23, all created 2-4, which should be watched tomorrow, if some upside surprise occurs.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Also, watch the XAU's downside gap at 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gap at 47.39.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui). PowerShares DB Gold Fund (DGL) Put/Call Ratio = 49/279 = 0.1756 on 2-8 (http://www.cboe.com/data/mktstat5.aspx#DGL), which is an extremely complacent level. Below 0.5000 reveals a very high level of complacency.
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursay 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
For the fourth time in five weeks, the savvy non contrarian US Dollar Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long, see the last/sixth data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.13% versus SPX (S & P 500) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Based on SPX's intraday chart some weakness is likely early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX peaked and put in a large bearish spike near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
The healthiest looking chart since 2-7's likely short term Wave 2 cycle low is NDX's (NASDAQ 100), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, I'll be looking to trade NDX ultra long via QLD early tomorrow.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
I traded GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short today, shorting it at 48.5701 and covering it at 48.50. If it wasn't for the modest rollover action today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, the trade would have been much better, but, I still made a significant profit, though the percentage gain was obviously very modest.
Tomorrow I'll be looking to short GDX again early on. GDX peaked about two hours before session's end, and, appears to have entered a Wave C type decline near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.18% versus the XAU today/on 2-11, and, was a very bearish -1.51% on Friday 2-8.
HUI did a Wave 5 move today, for the upcycle that began early last Wednesday 2-6 (the XAU's began early Thursday 2-7), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Now that HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) has completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up very short term upcycle (XAU experienced rollover action today), which is a countertrend Wave B of the short term Wave C downcycle since 1-30-08, HUI/XAU have probably entered, or soon will, the final very short term Wave C downcycle of the short term Wave C since 1-30-08, which jives with the very bearish NEM Lead Indicator the past two days. It was a very bearish -1.18% versus the XAU today/on 2-11, and, was a very bearish -1.51% on Friday 2-8.
The XAU has a downside gap at 174.88, HUI has downside gaps at 428.45 and 425.04, GDX has a downside gap at 46.86, and, GLD has a downside gap at 89.85.
HUI has an upside gap at 451.56, GDX has an upside gap at 49.15, NEM has an upside gap at 53.23, all created 2-4, which should be watched tomorrow, if some upside surprise occurs.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Also, watch the XAU's downside gap at 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gap at 47.39.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui). PowerShares DB Gold Fund (DGL) Put/Call Ratio = 49/279 = 0.1756 on 2-8 (http://www.cboe.com/data/mktstat5.aspx#DGL), which is an extremely complacent level. Below 0.5000 reveals a very high level of complacency.
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursay 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
For the fourth time in five weeks, the savvy non contrarian US Dollar Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long, see the last/sixth data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:16 PM
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