SPX/NDX/RUT And HUI/XAU Did A Very Short Term Wave A Move Today
SPX (S & P 500)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000) and HUI/XAU did a very short term Wave A move today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. SPX/NDX/RUT are in Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 3 upcycle since 2-7-08, and, HUI/XAU are in Wave C of the short term Wave C downcycle that began on 1-30-08.
The WMT and NEM Lead Indicators were slightly bearish today, at
-0.02% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 2-14 for the WMT Lead Indicator, and, at -0.03% versus the XAU today/on 2-14 for the NEM Lead Indicator. They both turned bullish/gap narrowed late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
A probably brief countertrend Wave B rebound is likely early tomorrow for SPX/NDX/RUT and HUI/XAU, in which I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, or maybe NEM/GLD, and, I'll be looking to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra short via SDS, QID, or TWM.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut), all hit short term Wave 2 cycle lows on Thursday 2-7, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Yesterday's SPX cycle high was a Wave 1 cycle high of the short term Wave 3 upcycle.
Based on SPX's intraday chart some (probably brief) strength is likely early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX bottomed and put in a very large bullish inverse spike near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Also, note SPX's Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern today, prior to the large bullish inverse spike near session's end.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
Since the NEM Lead Indicator turned bullish (gap narrowed) near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, it looks like GDX/HUI/XAU will bounce early tomorrow. I expect the NEM Lead Indicator to turn bearish again early tomorrow after a likely brief pop.
The NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish, which jives with HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entering Wave C of the short term Wave C downcycle (since 1-30-08) just after 2-12's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. It was -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, a very bearish -1.79% versus the XAU on 2-12, was a very bearish -1.18% versus the XAU on 2-11, and, was a very bearish -1.51% on Friday 2-8.
HUI has a downside gap at 425.04.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Also, watch the XAU's downside gap at 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gap at 47.39.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
For the fourth time in five weeks, the savvy non contrarian US Dollar Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long, see the last/sixth data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The WMT and NEM Lead Indicators were slightly bearish today, at
-0.02% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 2-14 for the WMT Lead Indicator, and, at -0.03% versus the XAU today/on 2-14 for the NEM Lead Indicator. They both turned bullish/gap narrowed late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC and see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
A probably brief countertrend Wave B rebound is likely early tomorrow for SPX/NDX/RUT and HUI/XAU, in which I'll be looking to short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, or maybe NEM/GLD, and, I'll be looking to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra short via SDS, QID, or TWM.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), RUT (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut), all hit short term Wave 2 cycle lows on Thursday 2-7, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Yesterday's SPX cycle high was a Wave 1 cycle high of the short term Wave 3 upcycle.
Based on SPX's intraday chart some (probably brief) strength is likely early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX bottomed and put in a very large bullish inverse spike near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Also, note SPX's Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern today, prior to the large bullish inverse spike near session's end.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
Since the NEM Lead Indicator turned bullish (gap narrowed) near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, it looks like GDX/HUI/XAU will bounce early tomorrow. I expect the NEM Lead Indicator to turn bearish again early tomorrow after a likely brief pop.
The NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish, which jives with HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entering Wave C of the short term Wave C downcycle (since 1-30-08) just after 2-12's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. It was -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, a very bearish -1.79% versus the XAU on 2-12, was a very bearish -1.18% versus the XAU on 2-11, and, was a very bearish -1.51% on Friday 2-8.
HUI has a downside gap at 425.04.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) has downside gaps at 44.33 and 42.87 that will probably get filled in the short term Wave C downcycle (cycle low target 42.50), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Also, watch the XAU's downside gap at 161.75, and, watch NEM's downside gap at 47.39.
The short term Wave C cycle low target for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM based on gaps is 161 for the XAU (shortly after filling the downside gap at 161.75), 380-400 for HUI (I need to check the less straightforward HUI historical data to finetune the target), 42.50 for GDX (shortly after filling the downside gap at 42.87), and 47 for NEM (shortly after filling the downside gap at 47.39).
One can look at the daily charts for HUI/XAU/GDX/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) and see that the Wave C cycle low targets are reasonable, based on where the short term Wave A cycle lows occurred.
Since 11-7-07 the XAU has had only one session (1-14-08) where it made any upside progress (HUI had three), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU obviously dramatically rolled over, probably put in a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-14-08 at 199.25, then put in a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high on 1-30-08, see the new annotated XAU candlestick chart dated 1-30-08, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that the US Dollar bottomed in November 2007 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd), and, that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold. Some gold clowns are still talking about the "collapsing" US Dollar.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (probably entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
For the fourth time in five weeks, the savvy non contrarian US Dollar Commercial Traders traded aggressively net long, see the last/sixth data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:17 PM
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