The Major Averages Upcycle That Began Late Friday Might Have Peaked Today
The major averages' upcycle that began late Friday might have peaked today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. It looked like it might have peaked late yesterday as expected, when today's early weakness occurred, but then what's probably a big Wave 5 type spike move occurred for a few hours.
Sometimes when an upcycle looks like it's peaked it'll surprise to the upside with a large Wave 5 spike move. Large spike moves tend to mark important cycle highs.
Since the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.44% versus SPX (S & P 500) today and got more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, more upside surprise is obviously a possibility tomorrow.
However, WMT appears to have turned down at mid session and might have been in a countertrend Wave B move at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Most or all of the strength indicated by today's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator might already be priced in.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, and, probably put in a Wave 2 down cycle low on Friday 2-22 (note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle) of a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.
RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle.
I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Wednesday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QID, TWM, or SDS. I'll also be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) early on, for what might just be a day trade.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
Today HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) put in a slightly higher countertrend Wave B of a short term Wave C (began 1-30-08 after hitting a short term Wave B cycle high at 478.70) bearish double top (assuming it turns down tomorrow) cycle high at 478.13 versus last Thursday 2-21's cycle high at 477.73.
HUI is now in the "apocalyptic" Wave C of a short term Wave C downcycle, in which the XAU should bottom at 161ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 161.75, and GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 42.87.
HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) is probably early in a very short term Wave C move since putting in a likely Wave B of a short term Wave C (began 1-30-08) cycle high at 478.13 today 2-26, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
I'll be looking to go short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, on Wednesday, and, I might buy some XAU put options. Since the major averages are in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, I might just day trade a GDX short position versus holding it for a few days. However, the NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, so, it might make sense to hold on to a GDX short position for a few days or at least overnight. I'll try to remember to post my thoughts on this tomorrow, well before the session ends.
It's very likely that HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entered a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-14-08. I've known this since shortly after the 1-14-08 cycle highs occurred. The obvious sign was the dramatic rollover action by HUI/XAU, in which HUI only made upside progress in three sessions from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high, and, the XAU only made upside progress in one session from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.09% versus the XAU today 2-26, it was a bearish -0.96% versus the XAU on 2-25, it was a bearish -0.84% versus the XAU on Friday 2-22, and, the five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar did not put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08 since it closed (I think) today at 74.75, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (might have entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Sometimes when an upcycle looks like it's peaked it'll surprise to the upside with a large Wave 5 spike move. Large spike moves tend to mark important cycle highs.
Since the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.44% versus SPX (S & P 500) today and got more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, more upside surprise is obviously a possibility tomorrow.
However, WMT appears to have turned down at mid session and might have been in a countertrend Wave B move at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Most or all of the strength indicated by today's very bullish WMT Lead Indicator might already be priced in.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, and, probably put in a Wave 2 down cycle low on Friday 2-22 (note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle) of a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.
RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle.
I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Wednesday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QID, TWM, or SDS. I'll also be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) early on, for what might just be a day trade.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
Today HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) put in a slightly higher countertrend Wave B of a short term Wave C (began 1-30-08 after hitting a short term Wave B cycle high at 478.70) bearish double top (assuming it turns down tomorrow) cycle high at 478.13 versus last Thursday 2-21's cycle high at 477.73.
HUI is now in the "apocalyptic" Wave C of a short term Wave C downcycle, in which the XAU should bottom at 161ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 161.75, and GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, should bottom at 42.50ish shortly after filling it's downside gap at 42.87.
HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) is probably early in a very short term Wave C move since putting in a likely Wave B of a short term Wave C (began 1-30-08) cycle high at 478.13 today 2-26, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
I'll be looking to go short GDX, the Gold Miners ETF, on Wednesday, and, I might buy some XAU put options. Since the major averages are in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, I might just day trade a GDX short position versus holding it for a few days. However, the NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, so, it might make sense to hold on to a GDX short position for a few days or at least overnight. I'll try to remember to post my thoughts on this tomorrow, well before the session ends.
It's very likely that HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) entered a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-14-08. I've known this since shortly after the 1-14-08 cycle highs occurred. The obvious sign was the dramatic rollover action by HUI/XAU, in which HUI only made upside progress in three sessions from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high, and, the XAU only made upside progress in one session from the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.09% versus the XAU today 2-26, it was a bearish -0.96% versus the XAU on 2-25, it was a bearish -0.84% versus the XAU on Friday 2-22, and, the five day NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
Someone needs to tell the gold clowns and con artists that massive monetary deflation resulting from massive asset deflation (stocks/real estate) is a major negative for gold.
Complacency/goofiness has reached an extreme now, which jives with a very important Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high probably occurring on 1-14-08 for HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui).
The US Dollar was up sharply Thursday 2-7, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd. The US Dollar did not put in a Wave 2 intermediate term cycle low at 74.85 on Friday 2-1-08 since it closed (I think) today at 74.75, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low in November 2007 at 74.48 (might have entered a Cyclical Bull Market in November 2007).
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:39 PM
2 Comments:
The dollar got hit pretty bad with the rate cuts coupled with inflation. I do not see the bull market for the dollar you are talking about. If 74.44 holds it will only be because of central bank intervention. If it does hold we might have found a bottom but that doesn't signal a new bull market to me. GL I think gold takes out 1000 before it corrects and that will probably drag the HUI up to 500.
By
Anonymous, at 2:55 PM
The US Dollar's cycle low at 74.48 in November 2007 held today obviously. I'm timing HUI/XAU really and gold usually/almost always if not always lags them at important cycle highs/lows, so, gold might not have peaked yet. HUI/XAU are probably in a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-14-08.
Gold won't drag HUI up, it doesn't work that way, HUI LEADS gold.
By the way gold and the US Dollar have had a somewhat positive correlation since the US Dollar's November 2007 cycle low at 74.48. It's possible that both gold and the US Dollar will decline in tandem for a while, just as they rose in tandem for a few months/since November 2007.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:08 PM
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