A Very Short Term Cycle Low Appears To Have Occurred Near Session's End For SPX/NDX/RUT
A very short term cycle low appears to have occurred near session's end for SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/NDX (NASDAQ 100)/RUT (Russell 2000), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. SPX has done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since Wednesday 2-27's very short term cycle high, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.52% versus SPX today, which jives with a very short term cycle low occurring late today.
In order for the short term Wave 2 cycle lows on 2-7 for SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/NDX and on 2-22 for RUT to hold SPX/NDX/RUT almost have to have hit a very short term cycle low today.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.
RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday 2-22's candle.
I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra long early on Monday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QLD, UWM, or SSO.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at neutral, since Fed credit declined by a modest -$253 Million in the five day period ending 2-27-08, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ . However, Fed credit was a humongous $41 Billion on 2-28, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, so, there might be a good entry point to trade the major averages long on Monday.
HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) has only risen +1.97% the past six weeks, from 1-14-08's cycle high at 489.49 to yesterday 2-28's cycle high at 499.12, which is obviously not a healthy linear upcycle, but is bearish dramatic rollover action.
A Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high is probably imminent for HUI/XAU, and, might have occurred yesterday 2-28. The way that HUI/XAU's peaks have rolled over/flattened out since September/October 2007, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, is consistent with a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high possibly occurring yesterday 2-28. Today's cycle high at 498.07 is a bearish slightly lower double top cycle high with yesterday's cycle high at 499.12.
Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market obviously implies that there should a Wave 3 and a Wave 5 Cyclical Bull Market in the future, but, a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should soon begin if it didn't already.
Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-525 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Beware of all the gold nitwits and scam artists. Trust me.
See the five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at -0.07% versus the XAU on 2-29, at +0.29% on 2-28, at -0.58% on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
In order for the short term Wave 2 cycle lows on 2-7 for SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/NDX and on 2-22 for RUT to hold SPX/NDX/RUT almost have to have hit a very short term cycle low today.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.
RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday 2-22's candle.
I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra long early on Monday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QLD, UWM, or SSO.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
The Rollover/Upside Surprise Barometer is at neutral, since Fed credit declined by a modest -$253 Million in the five day period ending 2-27-08, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ . However, Fed credit was a humongous $41 Billion on 2-28, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, so, there might be a good entry point to trade the major averages long on Monday.
HUI (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) has only risen +1.97% the past six weeks, from 1-14-08's cycle high at 489.49 to yesterday 2-28's cycle high at 499.12, which is obviously not a healthy linear upcycle, but is bearish dramatic rollover action.
A Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) cycle high is probably imminent for HUI/XAU, and, might have occurred yesterday 2-28. The way that HUI/XAU's peaks have rolled over/flattened out since September/October 2007, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, is consistent with a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high possibly occurring yesterday 2-28. Today's cycle high at 498.07 is a bearish slightly lower double top cycle high with yesterday's cycle high at 499.12.
Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market obviously implies that there should a Wave 3 and a Wave 5 Cyclical Bull Market in the future, but, a 12-18 month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should soon begin if it didn't already.
Gold fell from $730 on 5-11-06 to $542 in mid June 2006, which is only one month's time, so, if you think gold can't fall to $500-525 in 12-18 months, think again. Gold's primary trendline is at $500ish right now, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Beware of all the gold nitwits and scam artists. Trust me.
See the five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at -0.07% versus the XAU on 2-29, at +0.29% on 2-28, at -0.58% on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:25 PM
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