.......The NEM Lead Indicator Is Extremely Bearish
See the extremely bearish five day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and, see the extremely bearish three month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at -0.58% versus the XAU today/on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
Obviously I'll be looking to day trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short tomorrow.
If it wasn't for massive Fed credit the past two weeks that fueled program trading in a big way, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ and see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, HUI/XAU probably wouldn't have taken out the 1-14-08 or the 1-30-08 cycle highs.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) might have put in Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs today, rolling over dramatically versus the 1-14-08 and the 11-7-07 cycle highs.
It's obviously bearish when rollover action occurs, because, an upcycle is weakening, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. From the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high HUI only made upside progress in three sessions, while the XAU only made upside progess in one session, which was obviously bearish dramatic rollover action.
One thing that can't really be predicted is if rollover action will occur, and, how much will occur if it does (no way to know in advance how much the Fed will spike the program trader punch). Watching Fed credit can help a lot in that regard, and, I need to start closely watching it again. Also, the more important the cycle high the more rollover action is possible timewise and pricewise.
I'm bringing back the Rollover Barometer, which is largely based on the weekly Fed credit data, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, but, I also look at the daily Fed credit data at http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and RUT's (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) upcycle since late Friday peaked early today in dramatic rollover mode, while NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) peaked yesterday. All look like good shorts tomorrow. I'll be looking to day trade ultra short tomorrow via SDS, TWM, or QID. I day traded QID today, buying at 50.2699 and selling at 50.4201.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.15% versus SPX today/on 2-27, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, but, WMT put in a very large bearish spike on the intraday chart today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, WMT looked like it was about to enter an intraday Wave C downcycle at session's end.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, and, probably put in a Wave 2 down cycle low on Friday 2-22 (note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle) of a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.
RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle.
I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Thursday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QID, TWM, or SDS.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish in February, at -0.58% versus the XAU today/on 2-27, at +0.09% on 2-26, -0.96% on 2-25, -0.84% on 2-22, -1.53% on 2-21, -0.53% on 2-20, +0.46% on 2-19, -1.65% on 2-15, -0.03% on 2-14, +0.08% on 2-13, -1.79% on 2-12, -1.18% on 2-11, -1.51% on 2-8, +0.75% on 2-7, -0.21% on 2-6, +1.08% on 2-5, -1.99% on 2-4, -0.97% on 2-1.
Obviously I'll be looking to day trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short tomorrow.
If it wasn't for massive Fed credit the past two weeks that fueled program trading in a big way, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ and see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, HUI/XAU probably wouldn't have taken out the 1-14-08 or the 1-30-08 cycle highs.
HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) might have put in Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs today, rolling over dramatically versus the 1-14-08 and the 11-7-07 cycle highs.
It's obviously bearish when rollover action occurs, because, an upcycle is weakening, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. From the 11-7-07 cycle high to the 1-14-08 cycle high HUI only made upside progress in three sessions, while the XAU only made upside progess in one session, which was obviously bearish dramatic rollover action.
One thing that can't really be predicted is if rollover action will occur, and, how much will occur if it does (no way to know in advance how much the Fed will spike the program trader punch). Watching Fed credit can help a lot in that regard, and, I need to start closely watching it again. Also, the more important the cycle high the more rollover action is possible timewise and pricewise.
I'm bringing back the Rollover Barometer, which is largely based on the weekly Fed credit data, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/, but, I also look at the daily Fed credit data at http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and RUT's (Russell 2000, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut) upcycle since late Friday peaked early today in dramatic rollover mode, while NDX (NASDAQ 100, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) peaked yesterday. All look like good shorts tomorrow. I'll be looking to day trade ultra short tomorrow via SDS, TWM, or QID. I day traded QID today, buying at 50.2699 and selling at 50.4201.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.15% versus SPX today/on 2-27, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, but, WMT put in a very large bearish spike on the intraday chart today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, WMT looked like it was about to enter an intraday Wave C downcycle at session's end.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on 2-7-08, and, probably put in a Wave 2 down cycle low on Friday 2-22 (note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle) of a short term Wave 3 upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx for NDX.
RUT (Russell 2000) however probably just put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low on Friday 2-22, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, note the large bullish inverse spike on Friday's candle.
I'll look to day trade the major averages ultra short early on Thursday (using the intraday/very short term Elliott Wave count) via QID, TWM, or SDS.
Wave A intermediate term (Cyclical Bear Market began 10-11-07 for SPX, late October 2007 for NDX, late July 2007 for RUT) cycle lows occurred on 1-23 for SPX/NDX and on 1-22 for RUT (Russell 2000), so, SPX/NDX/RUT are in a countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:17 PM
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