SPX (S & P 500) Is Still In Wave A Down Of The Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle

SPX (S & P 500) is still in Wave A down of the Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle since very late 2-25-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.

SPX (S & P 500) ended today 2-27's session in (Wave A of) Wave 5 down of Wave A down of the Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle. There's a down up down up pattern since very late 2-25, with Wave 5 down beginning late today 2-27. SPX (S & P 500) created a bearish breakaway upside gap at 752.83 at today 2-27's open.

So, there might be very brief weakness early on Monday, since the late Wave A move will probably bottom shortly after Monday 3-2's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, followed by a brief countertrend Wave B up move, then, the final Wave C of Wave 5 of Wave A of the Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle should occur.

There will probably be an opportunity or two to day trade short on Monday.

SPX (S & P 500) is in a Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle (since very late 2-25-09) of the Wave C Monthly Downcycle since 1-28-09 (Wave A Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Since 1-28-09 there's a down up down up down pattern, with Wave 4 up peaking very late on 2-25-09.

A good short for Monday probably is the AMEX Oil Index (XOI), since the XOM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.89% versus the XOI today/on 2-27, and, it was -1.51% on 2-26. Also, the XOI has a bearish medium spike on yesterday 2-26's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. I'll look to day trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) or maybe SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF).

The XOI should fill the downside gap at 814.09 early on Monday, and, DUG should fill the upside gap at 31.35 early on Monday.

Today I day traded DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) twice and made 34.70 cents/share = $347 for each 1000 shares traded. Since DUG is relatively low priced (closed at 30.50 today, I traded it at lower levels), I had my best day of the year today.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

The extremely bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator today, at
+4.41% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-27, is a very short term bearish indication. It was -0.37% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-26, and, it was -0.53% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-25, it was a very bearish -1.70% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-24. The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.19% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-23, +0.29% on 2-20, +2.10 on 2-19, +3.75% on 2-18, +8.24% on 2-17.

Also, SPX (S & P 500) experienced a significant +1.42% rise in fear/+1.42% rise in the wall of worry today 2-27, since SPX (S & P 500) fell -2.36% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX rising +3.78%, which points to likely significant SPX (S & P 500)/market (countertrend) strength on Monday 3-2-09, after likely early weakness.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish at today 2-27-09's close, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is a very short term bearish indication.

The Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index appears to be headed for a test of the late November 2008 cycle low at 90.30 this week, in the Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle that began very late on 2-25-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Edjusre&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusre.

A good short now appears to be the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, which put in a slightly higher bearish double top on 2-10-09 at 1286.90 (countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle high), versus early January 2009's cycle high at 1286.08. 2-10-09's cycle high was the countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode at 1286.90 (similar to countertrend Wave B action, but, surprising modestly to the upside), versus the early January 2009 cycle high at 1286.08.

I'll probably wait for the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) to do a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, before trading/holding a QID position overnight.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 52.12, and 55.54, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 46.53 (created 2-17-09). SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 752.83, 826.84, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent/current substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors. WMT's been trying to fill that upside gap recently.

Note that the XAU's peaks rolled over/flattened out dramatically since mid December 2008's cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU has a downtrend going back to Tuesday 2-17-09's cycle high at 135.29, that very likely (after 2-25-09's action and the large bearish spikes on the daily candles on 2-25) is the start of a large downcycle/the Wave 2 Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle.

Note that the XAU (and GDX/HUI) has a large bearish spike on 2-25's candle, and, reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM has a very large bearish spike on 2-25's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM.Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high at 45.45/candle on 1-26-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, very likely is a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high (cycle began in late November 2008), and, the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle peaked at 45 on 2-20-09.

One needs to wait for a 3 to 6 week GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle to occur, before a good entry point will arise for long term investors.

The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +2.97% versus the XAU today/on 2-27, which is a very short term bearish indication, it was -0.07% on 2-26, +0.64% on 2-25, +1.98% on 2-24, +0.19% on 2-23, +3.48% on 2-20, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication (the XAU was down -3.25% on 2-23-09), +0.01% on 2-19, -1.55% on 2-18, +1.95% on 2-17, -1.20% on 2-13, +0.34% on 2-12, +0.61% on 2-11.

The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and gold also took out their recent cycle highs that occurred on 2-2-09 and 1-30-09, that appeared to be a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high.

The bearish short term and minor intermediate term scenario jives with the bearish gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past five weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for four straight weeks prior to last week, when they traded significantly net long, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, but, they added modestly to their short position.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 35.68 (filled 2-19), 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM has downside gaps at 40.79 (filled 2-24) and 39.35 (filled 2-26).

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal four weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.89% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 2-27, it was -1.51% on 2-26, +0.65% on 2-25, -0.64% on 2-24, +1.04% on 2-23, +1.43% on 2-20, -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX (S & P 500) Is Trying To Fill The Downside Gap At 743.33

SPX (S & P 500) is trying to fill the downside gap at 743.33 created at 2-24's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, will probably do so early tomorrow 2-27.

SPX (S & P 500) entered a Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle late yesterday 2-25-09. It did a Wave 1 down type move late yesterday, followed by a Wave 2 up move early today, then, the rest of today's session was a big Wave 3 type downcycle, that'll probably bottom early tomorrow, after filling the downside gap at 743.33 created at 2-24's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Shortly after the SPX (S & P 500) downside gap at 743.33 probably gets filled early tomorrow, a Wave 4 up move will probably occur, followed by the final Wave 5 down move, for the Wave A of a Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle that began late yesterday 2-25-09. So, there might be an opportunity to day trade short early tomorrow, followed by another opportunity to day trade short later on.

SPX (S & P 500) is in a Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle (since very late 2-25-09) of the Wave C Monthly Downcycle since 1-28-09 (Wave A Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Since 1-28-09 there's a down up down up pattern, with Wave 4 up peaking very late yesterday.

A good short for tomorrow probably is the AMEX Oil Index (XOI), since the XOM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.51% versus the XOI today/on 2-26. Also, the XOI has a bearish medium spike on today 2-26's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. I'll look to day trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF) or maybe SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF).

Today I day traded QID (UltraShort NDX (NASDAQ 100) ETF) twice and made 34.40 cents/share = $344 for each 1000 shares traded.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

A Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle (since very late yesterday 2-25-09) jives with today 2-26's modestly bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at
-0.37% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-26, and, it was -0.53% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-25, it was a very bearish -1.70% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-24. The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.19% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-23, +0.29% on 2-20, +2.10 on 2-19, +3.75% on 2-18, +8.24% on 2-17.

Also, SPX (S & P 500) experienced a significant +1.60% rise in complacency/-1.60% decline in the wall of worry today 2-26, since SPX (S & P 500) fell -1.58% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -0.02%, which points to likely early significant SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness on Friday 2-27-09.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is very bearish at today 2-26-09's close, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index appears to be headed for a test of the late November 2008 cycle low at 90.30 this week, in the Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle that began very late today 2-25-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Edjusre&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusre.

A good short now appears to be the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, which put in a slightly higher bearish double top on 2-10-09 at 1286.90 (countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle high), versus early January 2009's cycle high at 1286.08. 2-10-09's cycle high was the countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode at 1286.90 (similar to countertrend Wave B action, but, surprising modestly to the upside), versus the early January 2009 cycle high at 1286.08.

I'll probably wait for the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) to do a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, before trading/holding a QID position overnight.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 52.12, and 55.54, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 46.53 (created 2-17-09). SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 778.94 (filled 2-25), 826.84, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent/current substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors. WMT's been trying to fill that upside gap recently.

Note that the XAU's peaks rolled over/flattened out dramatically since mid December 2008's cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU has a downtrend going back to Tuesday 2-17-09's cycle high at 135.29, that very likely (after yesterday 2-25-09's action and the large bearish spikes on the daily candles yesterday) is the start of a large downcycle/the Wave 2 Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle.

Note that the XAU (and GDX/HUI) has a large bearish spike on 2-25's candle, and, reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM has a very large bearish spike on 2-25's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM.

Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high at 45.45/candle on 1-26-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, very likely is a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high (cycle began in late November 2008), and, the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle peaked at 45 on 2-20-09.

One needs to wait for a 3 to 6 week GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle to occur, before a good entry point will arise for long term investors.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.07% versus the XAU today/on 2-26, it was +0.64% on 2-25, +1.98% on 2-24, +0.19% on 2-23, +3.48% on 2-20, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication (the XAU was down -3.25% on 2-23-09), +0.01% on 2-19, -1.55% on 2-18, +1.95% on 2-17, -1.20% on 2-13, +0.34% on 2-12, +0.61% on 2-11.

The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and gold also took out their recent cycle highs that occurred on 2-2-09 and 1-30-09, that appeared to be a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high.

The bearish short term and minor intermediate term scenario jives with the bearish gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past four weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for the fourth straight week, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. Note that they also took advantage of the recent strength, trading a significant long position in the five day period ending 2-17-09, as they did the week before.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 35.68 (filled 2-19), 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM has downside gaps at 40.79 (filled 2-24) and 39.35 (filled 2-26).

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal four weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.51% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 2-26, it was +0.65% on 2-25, -0.64% on 2-24, +1.04% on 2-23, +1.43% on 2-20, -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX (S & P 500) Filled The Upside Gap At 778.94 and Peaked Shortly Thereafter

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) filled the upside gap at 778.94 from 2-20-09's open, and, the Short Term Wave 4 Upcycle (since very late on 2-23-09) peaked shortly thereafter, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which was a likely scenario discussed yesterday. Often important cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action has been completed.

SPX (S & P 500) is probably in a Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle (since very late today 2-25-09) of the Wave C Monthly Downcycle since 1-28-09 (Wave A Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Since 1-28-09 there's a down up down up pattern, with Wave 4 up peaking very late today.

A Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle (since very late today 2-25-09) jives with today 2-25's bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -0.53% versus SPX (S & P 500), and, it was a very bearish -1.70% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-24. The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.19% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-23, +0.29% on 2-20, +2.10 on 2-19, +3.75% on 2-18, +8.24% on 2-17.

Also, SPX (S & P 500) experienced a sharp +2.87% rise in complacency/-2.87% decline in the wall of worry today 2-25, since SPX (S & P 500) fell -1.07% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -1.80%, which points to likely early severe SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness on Thursday 2-26-09.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is near/bordering on extremely bullish at today 2-25-09's close, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is a very short term bearish indication.

Broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) has a large bearish spike on today 2-25-09's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, which is another factor pointing to weakness tomorrow.

The very large SPX (S & P 500) spike move/Short Term Wave 4 Upcycle, from very late 2-23-09 until very late today 2-25-09 (SPX was up +4.01% yesterday 2-24-09), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, jived with peaking action, and, also jived with countertrend Wave B action. When an upcycle begins with a huge spike move, it's likely to be countertrend Wave B peaking type action.

Early tomorrow I'll be looking to day trade ultra short using probably SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), or, maybe DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF), FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF). I'm going to probably hold on for a much longer time than the usual 1 to 10 minute day trades I've typically been doing, unless a large gain occurs very quickly. I might end up doing 2 or 3 day trades tomorrow.

SPX (S & P 500) created a downside gap at 743.33 at yesterday 2-24's open, so, watch that gap this week. If you're in a day trade or even maybe an overnight trade, you might want to exit after SPX (S & P 500) fills the downside gap at 743.33.

The Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index appears to be headed for a test of the late November 2008 cycle low at 90.30 this week, in the Short Term Wave 5 Downcycle that began very late today 2-25-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Edjusre&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusre.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

A good short now appears to be the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, which put in a slightly higher bearish double top on 2-10-09 at 1286.90 (countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle high), versus early January 2009's cycle high at 1286.08. 2-10-09's cycle high was the countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode at 1286.90 (similar to countertrend Wave B action, but, surprising modestly to the upside), versus the early January 2009 cycle high at 1286.08.

I'll probably wait for the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) to do a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, before trading/holding a QID position overnight.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56 (filled), 52.12, and 55.54, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 46.53 (created 2-17-09). SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 778.94 (filled 2-25), 826.84, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent/current substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors. WMT's been trying to fill that upside gap recently.

Note that the XAU's peaks rolled over/flattened out dramatically since mid December 2008's cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU has a downtrend going back to Tuesday 2-17-09's cycle high at 135.29, that very likely (after today 2-25-09's action and the large bearish spikes on the daily candles today) is the start of a large downcycle/the Wave 2 Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle. Note that the XAU (and GDX/HUI) has a large bearish spike on today 2-25's candle, and, reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM has a very large bearish spike on today 2-25's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM.

Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high at 45.45/candle on 1-26-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, very likely is a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high (cycle began in late November 2008), and, the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle peaked at 45 on 2-20-09.

One needs to wait for a 3 to 6 week GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle to occur, before a good entry point will arise for long term investors.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.64% versus the XAU today/on 2-25, it was +1.98% on 2-24, it was +0.19% on 2-23, +3.48% on 2-20, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication (the XAU was down -3.25% on 2-23-09), +0.01% on 2-19, -1.55% on 2-18, +1.95% on 2-17, -1.20% on 2-13, +0.34% on 2-12, +0.61% on 2-11.

The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and gold also took out their recent cycle highs that occurred on 2-2-09 and 1-30-09, that appeared to be a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high.

The bearish short term and minor intermediate term scenario jives with the bearish gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past four weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for the fourth straight week, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. Note that they also took advantage of the recent strength, trading a significant long position in the five day period ending 2-17-09, as they did the week before.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 35.68 (filled 2-19), 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM has downside gaps at 40.79 (filled 2-24) and 39.35.

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal four weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.65% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 2-25, it was -0.64% on 2-24, +1.04% on 2-23, +1.43% on 2-20, -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX (S & P 500) is in a Short Term Wave 4 Upcycle

SPX (S & P 500) is in a Short Term Wave 4 Upcycle (since very late yesterday 2-23-09) of the Wave C Monthly Downcycle since 1-28-09 (Wave A Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

It looks like SPX (S & P 500) is going to try to fill Friday 2-20-09's upside bearish breakaway gap at 778.94 early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Then, it looks like SPX's (S & P 500) Short Term Wave 4 Upcycle since very late yesterday 2-23-09 will probably peak shortly after either filling or failing to fill the upside gap at 778.94, which jives with today 2-24's very bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -1.70% versus SPX (S & P 500). The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.19% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 2-23, +0.29% on 2-20, +2.10 on 2-19, +3.75% on 2-18, +8.24% on 2-17.

SPX (S & P 500) experienced an unusually large +9.54% rise in complacency/-9.54% decline in the wall of worry today 2-24, since SPX (S & P 500) rose +4.01% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX falling -13.55%, which points to likely early significant SPX (S & P 500)/market strength on Wednesday 2-25-09, followed by likely severe weakness.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is a very short term bearish indication. A short term Wave 5 downcycle might begin on Wednesday for SPX (S & P 500).

The very large SPX (S & P 500) spike move since late yesterday 2-23-09 (SPX was up +4.01% today 2-24-09), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, jives with peaking action, and, also jives with countertrend Wave B action. When an upcycle begins with a huge spike move, it's likely to be countertrend Wave B peaking type action.

Early tomorrow I'll look for SPX (S & P 500) to try to fill Friday 2-20-09's upside bearish breakaway gap at 778.94, and, the Short Term Wave 4 Upcycle since very late yesterday 2-23-09 will probably peak early tomorrow.

I'll be looking to day trade ultra short using probably DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF), FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF), or SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF). I'm going to probably hold on for a much longer time than the usual 1 to 10 minute day trades I've typically been doing, unless a large gain occurs very quickly. I might end up doing 2 or 3 day trades tomorrow.

SPX (S & P 500) created a downside gap at 743.33 at today 2-24's open, so, watch that gap this week. If you're in a day trade or even maybe an overnight trade, you might want to exit after SPX (S & P 500) fills the downside gap at 743.33.

The Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index appears to be headed for a test of the late November 2008 cycle low at 90.30 this week, in the Short Term Wave 5 downcycle that should begin tomorrow 2-25-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusre. Maybe I'll day trade SRS tomorrow.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

A good short now appears to be the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, which put in a slightly higher bearish double top on 2-10-09 at 1286.90 (countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle high), versus early January 2009's cycle high at 1286.08. 2-10-09's cycle high was the countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode at 1286.90 (similar to countertrend Wave B action, but, surprising modestly to the upside), versus the early January 2009 cycle high at 1286.08.

I'll probably wait for the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) to do a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, before trading/holding a QID position overnight.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56 (filled), 52.12, and 55.54, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 46.53 (created 2-17-09). SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 778.94, 826.84, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent/current substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors. WMT's been trying to fill that upside gap recently.

Note that the XAU's peaks have rolled over/flattened out dramatically since mid December 2008's cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU has a downtrend going back to Tuesday 2-17-09's cycle high at 135.29, that appears to be the start of a large downcycle/the Wave 2 Minor Intermediate term Downcycle.

It's still possible however that a surprisingly large Wave 5 type blowoff spike move will occur in dramatic rollover mode for a day or two, even after today 2-24's huge decline (XAU down -7.08%). Note that the XAU (and GDX/HUI) doesn't have the usual large bearish spike on a recent candle, that usually would mark an important cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. In this case it would be a Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term cycle high, for the cycle since late October 2008.

Note that reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high at 45.45/candle on 1-26-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, that appears to be/probably is (likely now, NEM has a large bearish spike on 2-23's and 2-20's candle) a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high (cycle began in late November 2008), doesn't have a large bearish spike, so, it would be atypical for an important cycle high.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.98% versus the XAU today/on 2-24, it was +0.19% on 2-23, it was +3.48% on 2-20, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication (the XAU was down -3.25% on 2-23-09), +0.01% on 2-19, -1.55% on 2-18, +1.95% on 2-17, -1.20% on 2-13, +0.34% on 2-12, +0.61% on 2-11.

Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's short term upcycle of the past three weeks, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, might (doubtful now) end up taking out the 1-26-09 cycle high at 45.45, that appears to be a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high, for the cycle since late November 2008 (GDX/HUI/XAU since late October 2008), in which case it'll be a short term rollover upcycle, that's similar to a countertrend Wave B upcycle, but, it surprises modestly to the upside.

GDX/HUI/XAU are/were doing Wave 5 up of the Wave 5 Monthly Upcycle since mid January 2009, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. One needs to wait for a 3 to 6 week GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle to occur, before a good entry point will arise, for long term investors.

The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and gold also took out their recent cycle highs that occurred on 2-2-09 and 1-30-09, that appeared to be a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high.

The bearish short term and minor intermediate term scenario jives with the bearish gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past four weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for the fourth straight week, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. Note that they also took advantage of the recent strength, trading a significant long position in the five day period ending 2-17-09, as they did the week before.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 35.68 (filled 2-19), 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM has downside gaps at 40.79 (filled 2-24) and 39.35.

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal four weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.64% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 2-24, it was +1.04% on 2-23, +1.43% on 2-20, -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

I'm Looking to Day Trade SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ProShares ETF) Tomorrow

I'm looking to (doesn't mean that I definitely will) day trade SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ProShares ETF) tomorrow, since the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index appears to have ended today 2-23's session in Wave 3 down bottoming (of a likely inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, that began at today 2-23's open), of a final/third Wave 5 downcycle that began today 2-23, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EDJUSRE&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=&c=.

Once a Wave 4 up move peaks, I should/might (since I'm day trading, I probably won't hold it overnight if it doesn't bottom by session's end) be able to enter an SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ProShares ETF) trade and hold it until Wave 5 down of Wave 5 down bottoms.

The Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index appears to be headed for a test of the late November 2008 cycle low at 90.30 tomorrow or Wednesday, in the Wave 5 type downcycle that began today 2-23-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24djusre.

If it appears that the expected scenario is unfolding tomorrow, I'll probably hang on to SRS (or maybe I'll do 2 or 3 day trades) until the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index tests the late November 2008 cycle low at 90.30. I'm going to look to hit a home run or two tomorrow.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

SPX (S & P 500) is Doing a Wave 5 Down Type Move Since Late On Friday 2-20-09

SPX (S & P 500) is doing a Wave 5 down type move since late on Friday 2-20-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which is doing an inverse Elliott Wave down up down up down pattern, ending today 2-23's session in the final Wave 5 down.

Friday 2-20's late large spike move was Wave 4 up of Wave 3 down of the short term Wave 3 downcycle since early February as expected/discussed on Friday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) is in a Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle (since early February) of the Wave C Monthly Downcycle Since 1-28-09 (Wave A Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

It looks like SPX (S & P 500) will test the late November 2008 cycle low at 741.02 early tomorrow, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Then, a short term Wave 3 cycle low (cycle began in early February) will probably occur early tomorrow. SPX (S & P 500) has an inverse Elliott Wave down up down up down pattern on the daily chart since early February, and, is very oversold right now (Williams %R, RSI, Stochastics).

Also, the broad market WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.19% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 2-23 (+0.29% on 2-20, +2.10 on 2-19, +3.75% on 2-18, +8.24% on 2-17), and, SPX (S & P 500) experienced a very sharp +3.26% rise in fear/rise in the wall of worry today 2-23, since SPX (S & P 500) fell -3.47% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX rising +6.73%, which points to likely substantial SPX (S & P 500)/market strength on Tuesday 2-24-09, after likely early significant weakness.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bullish right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. A short term Wave 4 upcycle might begin on Tuesday for SPX (S & P 500).

It's doubtful that I'll day trade ultra short early tomorrow. I'll look to trade PFF (iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index ETF) long, which appears to have put in a major cycle low on Friday 2-20-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?pff.

Today I day traded QID (UltraShort NDX (NASDAQ 100) ETF) and made 14 cents/share = $140 for each 1000 shares traded, in a two minute 47 second trade.

QID shot out of the gate today, then rolled over, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=qid&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, it wasn't as good a day to day trade QID as one might think. That being said, I felt that I should have been able to do a second day trade today.

However, anyone who says that day trading is easy is a damn fool. Candlestick charting and Elliott Wave patterns on the intraday charts, plus, a solid understanding of cycles and gaps, usually works well. I haven't had a losing trade yet this year, and, I only had three last year.

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

The best short now appears to be the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, which put in a slightly higher bearish double top on 2-10-09 at 1286.90 (countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle high), versus early January 2009's cycle high at 1286.08. 2-10-09's cycle high was the countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode at 1286.90 (similar to countertrend Wave B action, but, surprising modestly to the upside), versus the early January 2009 cycle high at 1286.08.

I'll probably wait for the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) to do a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, before trading/holding a QID position overnight.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56 (filled), 52.12, and 55.54, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 46.53 (created 2-17-09). SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 826.84, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent/current substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors. WMT's now trying to fill that upside gap.

Note that the XAU's peaks have rolled over/flattened out dramatically since mid December 2008's cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. The XAU has a downtrend going back to Tuesday 2-17-09's cycle high at 135.29, that appears to be the start of a large downcycle/the Wave 2 Minor Intermediate term Downcycle.

It's still possible however that a surprisingly large Wave 5 type blowoff spike move will occur. Note that the XAU (and GDX/HUI) doesn't have the usual large bearish spike on a recent candle, that usually would mark an important cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. In this case it would be a Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term cycle high, for the cycle since late October 2008.

Note that reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high at 45.45/candle on 1-26-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, that appears to be/probably is (likely now, NEM has a large bearish spike on today 2-23's and on Friday 2-20's candle) a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high (cycle began in late November 2008), doesn't have a large bearish spike, so, it would be atypical for an important cycle high.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.19% versus the XAU today/on 2-23, it was +3.48% on 2-20, which correctly was a very short term bearish indication (the XAU was down -3.25% today 2-23-09), +0.01% on 2-19, -1.55% on 2-18, +1.95% on 2-17, -1.20% on 2-13, +0.34% on 2-12, +0.61% on 2-11.

Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's short term upcycle of the past three weeks, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, might (doubtful now) end up taking out the 1-26-09 cycle high at 45.45, that appears to be a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high, for the cycle since late November 2008 (GDX/HUI/XAU since late October 2008), in which case it'll be a short term rollover upcycle, that's similar to a countertrend Wave B upcycle, but, it surprises modestly to the upside.

GDX/HUI/XAU are/were doing Wave 5 up of the Wave 5 Monthly Upcycle since mid January 2009, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.

One needs to wait for a 3 to 6 week GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle to occur, before a good entry point will arise, for long term investors.

The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and gold also took out their recent cycle highs that occurred on 2-2-09 and 1-30-09, that appeared to be a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high.

The bearish short term and minor intermediate term scenario jives with the bearish gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past four weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for the fourth straight week, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. Note that they also took advantage of the recent strength, trading a significant long position in the five day period ending 2-17-09, as they did the week before.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 35.68 (filled today 2-19), 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM has downside gaps at 40.79 and 39.35.

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal four weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.04% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 2-23, it was +1.43% on 2-20, -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI

SPX (S & P 500) Created An Upside Potential Bearish Breakaway Gap At 778.94 At Today 2-20-09's Open

SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) created an upside potential bearish breakaway gap at 778.94 at today 2-20-09's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

After an upside attempted gap filling spike move barely missed filling 778.94, SPX (S & P 500) appeared to enter a Wave A down type move (Wave A down of a Wave 5 type downcycle, discussed below) late in the session, that's probably doing an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, ending the session in Wave 5 down probably.

Here's SPX's (S & P 500) likely Elliott Wave count, for the downcycle that began early on Friday 2-13 (a Wave 3 down type move began, of the big short term Wave 3 downcycle since early February), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. From early on Friday 2-13 until early on Wednesday 2-18, SPX (S & P 500) did a Wave 1 down type move (inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern). Then, from early on Wednesday 2-18 until very early on 2-19, SPX (S & P 500) did a Wave 2 up move, followed by a Wave 3 down type move that bottomed today (inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern). The late spike move today was probably Wave 4 up of Wave 3 down of the short term Wave 3 downcycle since early February, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Both SPX's (S & P 500, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) and broad market lead indicator WMT's late spike move today 2-20-09, see WMT's at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, appear to be countertrend Wave B type moves (large rapid spiking action is typical of countertrend action, it was probably session end short covering), so, early on Monday SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness is likely. WMT has a medium bearish spike on today 2-20's daily candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.

I'll be looking to day trade (probably FAZ) ultra short via SDS (UltraShort S & P 500 (SPX) ETF), TWM (UltraShort Russell 2000 (RUT) ETF), QID (UltraShort NASDAQ 100 (NDX) ETF), DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), FAZ (3 times Finance Bear, a lot of daredevils are trading the relatively new 3 times ETFs), etc.

I avoided day trading FAZ (3x Finance Bear ETF) today, and, by session's end I felt pretty good about that decision, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=FAZ&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. The bullish intraday WMT Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, correctly indicated that it was risky to day trade (ultra) short today.

SPX (S & P 500) is in a Short Term Wave 3 Downcycle (since early February) of the Wave C Monthly Downcycle Since 1-28-09 (Wave A Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle since 1-6-09), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

Today 2-20-09 SPX (S & P 500) experienced a very sharp rise in fear/+3.58% rise in the wall of worry, since SPX (S & P 500) fell -1.14% versus the SPX Volatility Index VIX rising +4.72%, which is a very sharp +3.58% rise in fear today, that points to likely substantial SPX (S & P 500)/market strength on Monday 2-23-09, after likely early significant weakness.

The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish
+0.29% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 2-20, +2.10 on 2-19, +3.75% on 2-18, +8.24% on 2-17.

The five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bullish right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. A short term Wave 4 upcycle might begin on Monday for SPX (S & P 500).

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.

The best short now appears to be the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, which put in a slightly higher bearish double top on 2-10-09 at 1286.90 (countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle high), versus early January 2009's cycle high at 1286.08. 2-10-09's cycle high was the countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode at 1286.90 (similar to countertrend Wave B action, but, surprising modestly to the upside), versus the early January 2009 cycle high at 1286.08.

I'll probably wait for the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) to do a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, before trading/holding a QID position overnight.

WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56 (filled), 52.12, and 55.54, and, has a downside bullish breakaway gap at 46.53 (created 2-17-09). SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 778.94, 826.84, 869.89, and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.

Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent/current substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors. WMT's now trying to fill that upside gap.

Note that the XAU's peaks have rolled over/flattened out dramatically since mid December 2008's cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. It's still possible however that a surprisingly large Wave 5 type blowoff spike move will occur. Note that the XAU (and GDX/HUI) doesn't have the usual large bearish spike on a recent candle, that usually would mark an important cycle high. In this case it would be a Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term cycle high, for the cycle since late October 2008.

Note that reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's cycle high at 45.45/candle on 1-26-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, that appears to be/probably is (likely now, NEM has a large bearish spike on today 2-20's candle) a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high (cycle began in late November 2008), doesn't have a large bearish spike, so, it would be atypical for an important cycle high.

The NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +3.48% versus the XAU today/on 2-20, which is a very short term bearish indication, it was +0.01% on 2-19, -1.55% on 2-18, +1.95% on 2-17, -1.20% on 2-13, +0.34% on 2-12, +0.61% on 2-11.

Reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM's short term upcycle of the past three weeks, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?NEM, might (doubtful now, though today's cycle high was 45) end up taking out the 1-26-09 cycle high at 45.45, that appears to be a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high, for the cycle since late November 2008 (GDX/HUI/XAU since late October 2008), in which case it'll be a short term rollover upcycle, that's similar to a countertrend Wave B upcycle, but, it surprises modestly to the upside.

GDX/HUI/XAU are/were doing Wave 5 up of the Wave 5 Monthly Upcycle since mid January 2009, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. One needs to wait for a 3 to 6 week GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle to occur, before a good entry point will arise, for long term investors.

The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and gold also took out their recent cycle highs that occurred on 2-2-09 and 1-30-09, that appeared to be a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high.

The bearish short term and minor intermediate term scenario jives with the bearish gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past four weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for the fourth straight week, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. Note that they also took advantage of the recent strength, trading a significant long position in the five day period ending 2-17-09, as they did the week before.

GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 35.68 (filled today 2-19), 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM has downside gaps at 41.58 (filled 2-18) and 39.35.

Gold hit a 5% major buy signal three weeks ago, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.

Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.

The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.43% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 2-20, it was -0.02% on 2-19, +1.94% on 2-18, +2.00% on 2-17, -1.14% on 2-13, +0.44% on 2-12, -1.99% on 2-11, +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.

GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.

The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.

My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).

Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

NEM XAU HUI