.........Wave 4's Wave C Began Early Yesterday

NEM and the XAU filled their downside gaps created at yesterday's open early today. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 since 1-31 is doing an Elliot Wave A, B, C correction, with Wave C beginning early yesterday. HUI, NEM, and the XAU fell 10-12% in Wave A, which was within the expected 10-15% range, and they rose about 5% in a brief 1 session duration Wave B upcycle. Wave A lasted a little over a week, beginning mid session on 1-31 and ending early on Wednesday. The Wave 4 correction may not even last 4 weeks the way it looks right now, with Tuesday's huge declines probably speeding the process up dramatically. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 minor int term downcycle began on 1-31-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU and a 20-30% 1-2 month correction is probably underway. A Wave 3 2% sell signal occurred on Tuesday. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for the latest HUI/NEM/XAUcharts showing the Elliot Wave count. NEM's 1 year chart dated 2-3-06 has the clearest count. The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell an unusually large > 6% to 1.43135 today from 1.54337 on Thursday which portends some strength today because it's an unusually large rise in complacency, but the Wave C parabolic/dramatic decline short term downcycle has begun, which is the dominant consideration since cycles are the primary market timing consideration. XAU Implied Volatility rose to 35.875 yesterday from 35.820 on Wednesday 2-8 versus a +1.60% rise in the XAU on 2-9, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) rise in fear that portends strength/an uptrend during part of today's session. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.11% yesterday, a bearish -0.83% on Wednesday and is a bullish +0.40% right now vs the XAU. Fed Credit in the week ending 2-8-06 fell -$5.235 Billion which portends weakness for the next few days to a week. The The Fed lent a respectable $7.75 Billion 3 day Repo so far today after $18.25 Billion in Repos yesterday versus a modest $3.5 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders on Wednesday after a $5 Billion 1 day Repo Tuesday and a respectable $7 Billion 1 day Repo on Monday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm , so the Fed only spiked the index fund trader punch yesterday. HUI, NEM, and the XAU entered their major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 correction on 1-31-06 and are likely to decline -20-30% in the next 4-10 weeks, similar to what occurred in 2003's Wave 4 when HUI fell -26.59% and the XAU fell -25.11% in 7 weeks. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.