...........A Waterfall Declineeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
That's a nice way of saying crash. I'm glad I've got my shorts on! Actually XAU Put Options. NEM fell -6.96% vs the the XAU's -7.08%, so NEM only outperformed by a slight +0.12%. At this rate the major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 4's Wave A down could bottom tomorrow. A clearly bullish NEM Lead Indicator (> +0.50%) will be something to look for in the next day or two. Also, the Fed usually spikes the index fund trader punch on Thursdays, so that's something to look for also. A great indicator to watch is William's %R. When that hits an extremely oversold extreme at or near -100%, a short term cycle low will probably be imminent. It's at -85-90% for NEM/XAU and at -70% for HUI at today's close.
The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 may be a quick violent 2-4 week -20-30% decline instead of a two month affair. It appears that way right now at least.
NEM has downside gaps to fill at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 137.64 from 1-19, at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred.
See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.
The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 may be a quick violent 2-4 week -20-30% decline instead of a two month affair. It appears that way right now at least.
NEM has downside gaps to fill at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 137.64 from 1-19, at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred.
See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:30 PM
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