NEM Underperformed The XAU Late in the Session
See
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem but NEM outperformed the XAU by +0.27% today, so early weakness followed by some strength on Monday, but probably not much, is likely. HUI, NEM , and the XAU are probably in the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 Minor int term downcycle (See first two charts at: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) and are in Wave 4's Wave A down of a likely Elliot Wave A, B, C correction. Wave A should be about -10-15%, then Wave B should be about +5-7%, then Wave C should be about -15-20%, for a likely total Wave 4 decline of -25-30% in about one to two months time.
Two new charts with the Elliot Wave count confirm that Tuesday 1-31 is probably the end of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 3 minor int term upcycle since 10-20-05 for HUI/XAU and since 11-4-05 for NEM. NEM's 1 year chart dated 1-20-06 indicated that Wave 3 was probably in progress, so major/final (long term and major int term) cycle highs were probably not occurring. See first two charts at: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html
If you were to wait for a 2% follow through sell signal (connect the bottoms/cycle lows since 10-20-05 to get the Wave 3 minor int term upcycle trendline) to get a Wave 3 sell signal you'd give back much of your gains, so Elliot Wave is highly useful.
Wave 4 could last about two months and the declines could exceed 25%, based on what happened in the prior parabolic major upcycle's Wave 4 that lasted 7 weeks in 2003, the XAU fell -25.11% and HUI fell -26.59%. Since the long term cycles are getting longer, this correction could be even longer and deeper.
See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem but NEM outperformed the XAU by +0.27% today, so early weakness followed by some strength on Monday, but probably not much, is likely. HUI, NEM , and the XAU are probably in the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 Minor int term downcycle (See first two charts at: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) and are in Wave 4's Wave A down of a likely Elliot Wave A, B, C correction. Wave A should be about -10-15%, then Wave B should be about +5-7%, then Wave C should be about -15-20%, for a likely total Wave 4 decline of -25-30% in about one to two months time.
Two new charts with the Elliot Wave count confirm that Tuesday 1-31 is probably the end of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 3 minor int term upcycle since 10-20-05 for HUI/XAU and since 11-4-05 for NEM. NEM's 1 year chart dated 1-20-06 indicated that Wave 3 was probably in progress, so major/final (long term and major int term) cycle highs were probably not occurring. See first two charts at: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html
If you were to wait for a 2% follow through sell signal (connect the bottoms/cycle lows since 10-20-05 to get the Wave 3 minor int term upcycle trendline) to get a Wave 3 sell signal you'd give back much of your gains, so Elliot Wave is highly useful.
Wave 4 could last about two months and the declines could exceed 25%, based on what happened in the prior parabolic major upcycle's Wave 4 that lasted 7 weeks in 2003, the XAU fell -25.11% and HUI fell -26.59%. Since the long term cycles are getting longer, this correction could be even longer and deeper.
See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:24 PM
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