Trade the Cycles

Thursday, February 02, 2006

Two New Charts With The Elliot Wave Count Confirm

That Tuesday 1-31 is probably the end of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 3 minor int term upcycle since 10-20-05 for HUI/XAU and since 11-4-05 for NEM. See first two charts at:

http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html

Fed Credit rose +$2.389 Billion in the week ending 2-1-06 (see link), but given a Wave 4 minor int term downcycle it appears that downside gap filling is likely the next few days.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/

Note that SPX = GSPC = S & P 500 weakness led to HUI/NEM/XAU weakness today as expected. Index funds have to mechanically dump their gold/silver stock components when SPX is weak, which leads to weakness in many other indexes with common components and even in those without common components, because SPX basically is the stock market. See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=m&q=b&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC

NEM underperformed the XAU by a slight margin of -0.04%, which, given that a Wave 4 minor int term downcycle is in effct since 1-31, portends more weakness tomorrow and the S & P 500 Volatility Index VIX rose an unusually large +7.04% today versus a -0.91% decline in SPX today which is an unusually large > 6% rise in fear that portends SPX weakness tomorrow.

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