............................NEM Gapped Way Down
And filled it's downside gap at 59.20 from 1-30. The XAU filled it's downside gap at 146.79 from 1-30 shortly after the open. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 minor int term downcycle probably began on 1-31-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU and a 20-30% 1-2 month correction is probably underway. A Wave 3 2% sell signal could occur today or tomorrow, but Elliot Wave already identified 1-31-06 as the likely Wave 3 minor int term cycle high for HUI/NEM/XAU. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for their latest charts showing the Elliot Wave count. NEM's 1 year chart dated 2-3-06 has the clearest count.
It'll be interesting to see how the other analysts/timers handle this 20-30% 1-2 month correction. The vast majority are making educated guesses and don't have proven systems, with Jeff Kern being a notable exception ( http://www.skigoldstocks.com/ ). Check out Jeff's free area if you're into cutting edge market timing/research. I have no vested interest in promoting Jeff, I'm not an affliate for him. He's a truly great market timer/researcher as I say in the testimonial I gave him. We exchange occasional e mails, and, he said he'd do a weekly internet radio show with me when I decide to do that, maybe in the next long term upcycle. Analysts/timers tend to be contrarian indicators, becoming very bullish near important cycle highs and very bearish near important cycle lows, because, without a proven system, you're in the dark.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose to 1.41244 today from 1.40976 on Monday which portends some strength today. XAU Implied Volatility rose to 35.385 yesterday from 34.570 on Friday 2-3 versus a +2.74% risee in the XAU on 2-6, which is a very sharp (3-6%) rise in fear that portends strength/an uptrend during part of today's session.
The Fed lent a modest $5 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders so far today after a respectable $7 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders yesterday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm The S & P 500 was weak early today, which was a major contributor to early gold/silver stock weakness due to index fund selling. HUI, NEM, and the XAU probably entered their major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 correction on 1-31-06 and are likly to decline -20-30% in the next 4-10 weeks, similar to what occurred in 2003's Wave 4 when HUI fell -26.59% and the XAU fell -25.11% in 7 weeks.
NEM has downside gaps to fill at 56.97 from 1-25, at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 141.29 from 1-25, at 137.64 from 1-19, at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred.
See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.
It'll be interesting to see how the other analysts/timers handle this 20-30% 1-2 month correction. The vast majority are making educated guesses and don't have proven systems, with Jeff Kern being a notable exception ( http://www.skigoldstocks.com/ ). Check out Jeff's free area if you're into cutting edge market timing/research. I have no vested interest in promoting Jeff, I'm not an affliate for him. He's a truly great market timer/researcher as I say in the testimonial I gave him. We exchange occasional e mails, and, he said he'd do a weekly internet radio show with me when I decide to do that, maybe in the next long term upcycle. Analysts/timers tend to be contrarian indicators, becoming very bullish near important cycle highs and very bearish near important cycle lows, because, without a proven system, you're in the dark.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose to 1.41244 today from 1.40976 on Monday which portends some strength today. XAU Implied Volatility rose to 35.385 yesterday from 34.570 on Friday 2-3 versus a +2.74% risee in the XAU on 2-6, which is a very sharp (3-6%) rise in fear that portends strength/an uptrend during part of today's session.
The Fed lent a modest $5 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders so far today after a respectable $7 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders yesterday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm The S & P 500 was weak early today, which was a major contributor to early gold/silver stock weakness due to index fund selling. HUI, NEM, and the XAU probably entered their major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 correction on 1-31-06 and are likly to decline -20-30% in the next 4-10 weeks, similar to what occurred in 2003's Wave 4 when HUI fell -26.59% and the XAU fell -25.11% in 7 weeks.
NEM has downside gaps to fill at 56.97 from 1-25, at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 141.29 from 1-25, at 137.64 from 1-19, at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred.
See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:01 AM
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