The XAU Is Trying To Fill An Upside Gap Near 152

Then the XAU and NEM have downside gaps created at today's open and many others. The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose to 1.40976 today from 1.38442 on Friday which correctly portended some strength today. XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.20% to 34.570 on Friday 2-3 from 34.990 on 2-2 versus a -2.87% decline in the XAU on 2-3, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +4.07% rise in complacency (-1.20% + -2.87% = -4.07%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -4.07%, therefore complacency rose by +4.07%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 2-6's session. The Fed lent a respectable $7 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders today, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm The S & P 500 began modestly higher today, which was a major contributor to early gold/silver stock strength due to index fund buying, but SPX has turned down so gold/silver stocks should soon turn down. HUI, NEM, and the XAU probably entered their major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 correction on 1-31-06 and are likly to decline -20-30% in the next 4-10 weeks, similar to what occurred in 2003's Wave 4 when HUI fell -26.59% and the XAU fell -25.11% in 7 weeks.

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