.......Wave 4's Wave B Up Began Early Yesterday

Thursday is punch spiking day for the Fed, they lent an $11 Billion 14 day Repo so far today which has led to an early spike move. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 4 since 1-31 should do an Elliot Wave A, B, C correction. HUI, NEM, and the XAU fell 10-12% in Wave A which was within the expected 10-15% range. Wave A lasted a little over a week, beginning mid session on 1-31 and ending early yesterday. The Wave 4 correction may not even last 4 weeks the way it looks right now, with Wednesday's huge declines probably speeding the process up dramatically. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 minor int term downcycle began on 1-31-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU and a 20-30% 1-2 month correction is probably underway. A Wave 3 2% sell signal occurred on Wednesday. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for the latest HUI/NEM/XAUcharts showing the Elliot Wave count. NEM's 1 year chart dated 2-3-06 has the clearest count. The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose to 1.54337 today from 1.47331 on Wednesday which correctly portended some strength today. XAU Implied Volatility fell to 35.820 yesterday from 36.740 on Tuesday 2-7 versus a -0.18% decline in the XAU on 2-8, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) rise in complacency that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of today's session. The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.83% yesterday and is a bearish -0.35% now vs the XAU. The Fed lent lent a $11 Billion 14 day Repo so far today versus a modest $3.5 Billion 1 day Repo to index fund traders yesterday after a $5 Billion 1 day Repo Tuesday and a respectable $7 Billion 1 day Repo on Monday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm , so the Fed didn't really spike the index fund trader punch until today. HUI, NEM, and the XAU entered their major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 correction on 1-31-06 and are likely to decline -20-30% in the next 4-10 weeks, similar to what occurred in 2003's Wave 4 when HUI fell -26.59% and the XAU fell -25.11% in 7 weeks. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 137.64 from 1-19, at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Often cycle highs or lows will occur shortly after gaps get filled, so one needs to track gaps closely. If gaps don't get filled that can be a bearish or bullish sign, as occurred recently when NEM twice closely approached (daily cycle lows at 48.88 and 48.89) but didn't fill it's downside gap at 48.75, then the recent explosive rally occurred. See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.