SPX's (S & P 500) Short Term Countertrend Wave B Upcycle Probably Peaked Yesterday 1-28-09
SPX's (S & P 500) Short Term Countertrend Wave B Upcycle probably peaked yesterday 1-28-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Since last week's short term wave A cycle low SPX (S & P 500) did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern on the daily chart.
Also, SPX (S & P 500) created a bearish breakaway upside gap at 874.09 at today 1-29's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, didn't make a serious attempt at filling it.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) was in Wave 5 down of an intraday Elliott Wave inverse 12345 down up down up down downcycle at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, early SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness is likely tomorrow 1-30.
Also, WMT has a bearish medium spike on today 1-29's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, and, appears to have entered Wave 5 down of the big short term Wave 5 downcycle since mid January (Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008).
The super bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +1.52% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 1-29, -3.48% on 1-28, -0.70% on 1-27, -0.04% on 1-26, -1.60% on 1-23, +0.97% on 1-22, -7.16% on 1-21, points to a great shorting opportunity (probably after tomorrow's countertrend Wave B type rebound) in the near future.
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (+7.49%) reveals a very sharp rise in fear today, since SPX fell a very sharp -3.31%, which is a very sharp +4.18% rise in fear/+4.18% rise in the SPX wall of worry, that points to substantial SPX strength on Friday, after likely early weakness.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 874.09 and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness/short term Wave A downcycle for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low in the next few weeks (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).
A story today is NEM's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) massive volume of 42.20+ million shares, which is by far it's largest daily volume of the past five years.
Today 1-29-09's GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM cycle low was probably Wave A down of the big short term Wave A downcycle since 1-26-09 (Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 1-26-09), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.97% versus the XAU today/on 1-29.
From the mid/late November 2008 (late October 2008 for GDX/HUI/XAU) likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 21.10 to the 1-26-09 cycle high at 45.45 NEM did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle, peaking in rollover mode, and, NEM created a very large very bearish breakaway type upside gap at 41.71 at yesterday 1-28's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
Gold didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, but, it might soon do so. Gold appears to have broken out on Friday 1-23-09, and, followed through to the upside on 1-26, which is a good sign. Gold tends to lag GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM, so, it might not have peaked on 1-26-09.
NEM has downside gaps at 40.90 (filled) and 37.83 (filled). GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
With the gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator at a very bearish -1.97% versus the XAU today/on 1-29, and, super bearish recently (-5.87% on 1-28, -2.09% on 1-27, -1.35% on 1-26, -0.32% on 1-23), I'll look to day trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short tomorrow, if my broker has some stock available.
SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF) looks like it'll try to fill yesterday 1-28's upside gap at 58.48 tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=srs&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, SRS will probably be my primary trade early tomorrow, along with shorting GDX, which might happen later in the session.
Tomorrow I'll also possibly look to (early market weakness likely, that will probably be brief) day trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF), SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
I made nearly 11 cents per share = nearly $110 per 1000 shares traded, in a 5+ minute DUG (UltraShort Oil and gas ETF) trade today (25,000 shares x 0.11 = $2750).
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.80% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-29, but, is extremely bearish recently, at -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Also, SPX (S & P 500) created a bearish breakaway upside gap at 874.09 at today 1-29's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, didn't make a serious attempt at filling it.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) was in Wave 5 down of an intraday Elliott Wave inverse 12345 down up down up down downcycle at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, early SPX (S & P 500)/market weakness is likely tomorrow 1-30.
Also, WMT has a bearish medium spike on today 1-29's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, and, appears to have entered Wave 5 down of the big short term Wave 5 downcycle since mid January (Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008).
The super bearish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +1.52% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 1-29, -3.48% on 1-28, -0.70% on 1-27, -0.04% on 1-26, -1.60% on 1-23, +0.97% on 1-22, -7.16% on 1-21, points to a great shorting opportunity (probably after tomorrow's countertrend Wave B type rebound) in the near future.
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (+7.49%) reveals a very sharp rise in fear today, since SPX fell a very sharp -3.31%, which is a very sharp +4.18% rise in fear/+4.18% rise in the SPX wall of worry, that points to substantial SPX strength on Friday, after likely early weakness.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 874.09 and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness/short term Wave A downcycle for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low in the next few weeks (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).
A story today is NEM's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) massive volume of 42.20+ million shares, which is by far it's largest daily volume of the past five years.
Today 1-29-09's GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM cycle low was probably Wave A down of the big short term Wave A downcycle since 1-26-09 (Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle since 1-26-09), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.97% versus the XAU today/on 1-29.
From the mid/late November 2008 (late October 2008 for GDX/HUI/XAU) likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 21.10 to the 1-26-09 cycle high at 45.45 NEM did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle, peaking in rollover mode, and, NEM created a very large very bearish breakaway type upside gap at 41.71 at yesterday 1-28's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
Gold didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, but, it might soon do so. Gold appears to have broken out on Friday 1-23-09, and, followed through to the upside on 1-26, which is a good sign. Gold tends to lag GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM, so, it might not have peaked on 1-26-09.
NEM has downside gaps at 40.90 (filled) and 37.83 (filled). GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
With the gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator at a very bearish -1.97% versus the XAU today/on 1-29, and, super bearish recently (-5.87% on 1-28, -2.09% on 1-27, -1.35% on 1-26, -0.32% on 1-23), I'll look to day trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF) short tomorrow, if my broker has some stock available.
SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF) looks like it'll try to fill yesterday 1-28's upside gap at 58.48 tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=srs&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, SRS will probably be my primary trade early tomorrow, along with shorting GDX, which might happen later in the session.
Tomorrow I'll also possibly look to (early market weakness likely, that will probably be brief) day trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF), SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
I made nearly 11 cents per share = nearly $110 per 1000 shares traded, in a 5+ minute DUG (UltraShort Oil and gas ETF) trade today (25,000 shares x 0.11 = $2750).
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.80% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-29, but, is extremely bearish recently, at -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:41 PM
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