SPX's (S & P 500) Countertrend Wave B Up Of The Wave A Monthly Downcycle Since 1-6-09 Appears To Have Peaked Yesterday
SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) countertrend Wave B up of the Wave A Monthly Downcycle since 1-6-09 appears to have peaked yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=.
After yesterday 1-26's cycle high SPX (S & P 500) did a likely Wave A down move that bottomed late yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, followed by a countertrend Wave B up move that peaked mid session today, so, SPX (S & P 500) was probably in a Wave C type downcycle at session's end today, and, probably entered Wave C down of the Wave A Monthly Downcycle (since 1-6-09) yesterday 1-26. Note that SPX put in a bearish spike shortly before session's end today 1-27.
The above analysis jives with the extremely bearish Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -0.70% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-27, -0.04% on 1-26, -1.60% on 1-23, +0.97% on 1-22, -7.16% on 1-21, +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) filled it's upside gaps at 840.24 and 850.12 yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, WMT filled it's upside gap at 48.87 yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, but, SPX probably/very likely remains in a Wave A monthly downcycle since 1-6-09, and, WMT probably/very likely remains in a Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008, partly because the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator remains extremely bearish recently.
Also, looking at WMT's daily chart, it probably needs to do Wave 5 down of the Wave 5 downcycle since mid January (Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low this week or next week (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (-7.53%) reveals an unusually large rise in complacency today, since SPX rose a significant +1.09%, which is an unusually large +6.44% rise in complacency/-6.44% decline in the SPX wall of worry, that typically points to significant SPX strength early on Wednesday, but, weakness appears likely.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 871.79 and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a very short term Wave 3 cycle high yesterday 1-26-09, of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 (Wave 5 of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Note the large bearish spike on HUI's red (close below the open) candle on 1-26.
Near session's end yesterday GDX/HUI/XAU entered Wave C of Wave 4 down of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Reliable gold/silver sector Lead Indicator NEM is down sharply after hours (39.80 cycle low in my quote streamer), due to news of a stock offering (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/090127/la63492.html?.v=1) and mine purchase. NEM probably would have fallen significantly/maybe sharply anyway early tomorrow.
Wave 4 down of the GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 will probably bottom early tomorrow. Watch downside gaps at 31.46 (might get filled tomorrow), 29.13 (shouldn't get filled until later) for GDX, and, at 40.90 (filled after hours today 1-27) and 37.83 (shouldn't get filled until later) for NEM.
GDX (Gold Miners Index ETF) long will probably be my primary day trade tomorrow, once it's Wave 4 down move bottoms, and, I'll possibly look to day trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, XOM Lead Indicator was +0.37% versus the XOI today/on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23), SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
I made nearly 17.50 cents per share = nearly $175 per 1000 shares traded, in a two minute 34 second SDS (UltraShort SPX ETF) trade today.
GDX/HUI/XAU's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 probably still has substantial upside, because, they will probably do a huge Wave 5 move soon, and, the third/final Wave 5 upcycle of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 should be a spectacular huge blowoff spike move, that will probably begin tomorrow, so, buckle up!
Gold didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal yesterday 1-26, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, but, it has a good shot of doing so/probably will this week. Gold appears to have broken out on Friday 1-23-09, and, followed through to the upside yesterday 1-26, which is a good sign.
NEM has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 40.90 (filled after hours today) and 37.83. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.37% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-27, it was -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
After yesterday 1-26's cycle high SPX (S & P 500) did a likely Wave A down move that bottomed late yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, followed by a countertrend Wave B up move that peaked mid session today, so, SPX (S & P 500) was probably in a Wave C type downcycle at session's end today, and, probably entered Wave C down of the Wave A Monthly Downcycle (since 1-6-09) yesterday 1-26. Note that SPX put in a bearish spike shortly before session's end today 1-27.
The above analysis jives with the extremely bearish Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at -0.70% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 1-27, -0.04% on 1-26, -1.60% on 1-23, +0.97% on 1-22, -7.16% on 1-21, +3.34% on 1-20, -0.35% on 1-16, -0.54% on 1-15.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) filled it's upside gaps at 840.24 and 850.12 yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, and, WMT filled it's upside gap at 48.87 yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, but, SPX probably/very likely remains in a Wave A monthly downcycle since 1-6-09, and, WMT probably/very likely remains in a Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008, partly because the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator remains extremely bearish recently.
Also, looking at WMT's daily chart, it probably needs to do Wave 5 down of the Wave 5 downcycle since mid January (Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since early December 2008), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent substantial weakness for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low this week or next week (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).
The SPX (S & P 500) Volatility Index VIX (-7.53%) reveals an unusually large rise in complacency today, since SPX rose a significant +1.09%, which is an unusually large +6.44% rise in complacency/-6.44% decline in the SPX wall of worry, that typically points to significant SPX strength early on Wednesday, but, weakness appears likely.
SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 871.79 and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
GDX/HUI/XAU put in a very short term Wave 3 cycle high yesterday 1-26-09, of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 (Wave 5 of the Wave 1 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle since late October 2008), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Note the large bearish spike on HUI's red (close below the open) candle on 1-26.
Near session's end yesterday GDX/HUI/XAU entered Wave C of Wave 4 down of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Reliable gold/silver sector Lead Indicator NEM is down sharply after hours (39.80 cycle low in my quote streamer), due to news of a stock offering (http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/090127/la63492.html?.v=1) and mine purchase. NEM probably would have fallen significantly/maybe sharply anyway early tomorrow.
Wave 4 down of the GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 will probably bottom early tomorrow. Watch downside gaps at 31.46 (might get filled tomorrow), 29.13 (shouldn't get filled until later) for GDX, and, at 40.90 (filled after hours today 1-27) and 37.83 (shouldn't get filled until later) for NEM.
GDX (Gold Miners Index ETF) long will probably be my primary day trade tomorrow, once it's Wave 4 down move bottoms, and, I'll possibly look to day trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF, XOM Lead Indicator was +0.37% versus the XOI today/on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23), SDS (UltraShort SPX (S & P 500) ETF) or TWM (UltraShort RUT ETF), QID (UltraShort NDX ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), SMN (UltraShort Basic Materials ETF), etc.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
I made nearly 17.50 cents per share = nearly $175 per 1000 shares traded, in a two minute 34 second SDS (UltraShort SPX ETF) trade today.
GDX/HUI/XAU's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 probably still has substantial upside, because, they will probably do a huge Wave 5 move soon, and, the third/final Wave 5 upcycle of the big short term Wave 5 upcycle since 1-15-09 should be a spectacular huge blowoff spike move, that will probably begin tomorrow, so, buckle up!
Gold didn't hit a 5% follow through major buy signal yesterday 1-26, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold, but, it has a good shot of doing so/probably will this week. Gold appears to have broken out on Friday 1-23-09, and, followed through to the upside yesterday 1-26, which is a good sign.
NEM has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 40.90 (filled after hours today) and 37.83. GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside bullish breakaway gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.37% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 1-27, it was -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21, +2.78% on 1-20, +0.32% on 1-16,+1.55% on 1-15, +0.63% on 1-14, +0.31% on 1-13, +1.84% on 1-12, +1.33% on 1-9.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:34 PM
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