The S & P 500 (SPX) Put in a Short Term Wave 2 Cycle Low Today
The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low today, not on 10-16 as previously thought, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the large bullish inverse spike on today 10-23's candle.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) remains in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) until proven otherwise, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, putting in a lower cycle low today. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on today 10-23's candle.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) probably put in a Wave 2 cycle low yesterday 10-22, of the short term Wave 3 upcycle since 10-16-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. The XOI put in a slightly higher bullish double bottom cycle low today, so, I'll be looking to trade the XOI ultra long via DIG tomorrow (watch DIG's upside gap at 34.50 from yesterday 10-22's open). Since the short term cycles were unclear today, until very late in the session, I didn't do any trading. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas Index) appeared to be in Wave 5 of a big intraday Wave 3 type move (began at 2:50ish) at session's end today (Wave 1 peaked at 2:35ish), of the upcycle that began late today (2:20ish), see the one day chart http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. After today see the 5 day chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.
So, after an intraday Wave 4 down type move bottoms (Wave 5 of Wave 3 pop should occur at the open/very early on tomorrow), I'll look to trade the XOI ultra long via DIG tomorrow, to catch the final Wave 5 of Wave 5 upcycle. I'm using a large 10 minute chart, that's very useful for finetuning (via Elliott Wave patterns, they're very useful, even on a 10 minute chart) entry and exit points.
The intraday one and five day candlestick XOI (or whatever index I happen to be trading) charts (at Yahoo, many indexes are real time or nearly so) are very useful for determining and finetuning the Elliott Wave count. I also use real time ASKResearch.com charting ($25/month).
Concerning GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags) one should obviously wait for a 5% major buy signal. HUI (and GDX/XAU) doesn't appear to have bottomed yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
As bullish as the NEM Lead Indicator has become, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, at a bearish -0.85% versus the XAU today/on 10-23, at an extremely bullish (which was correctly very short term bearish) +2.21% on 10-22, +2.78% on 10-21, +2.23% on 10-20, -2.02% on 10-17, +3.23% on 10-16, +5.62% on 10-15, -0.20% on 10-14, +2.42% on 10-13, a very important Wave 2 (since mid March) Cyclical Bear Market cycle low could occur any day now for GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags and silver lags gold).
The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) probably put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low today/on 10-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the large bullish inverse spike on 10-23's candle.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a lower cycle low today/on 10-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially (doubtful) a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-23's candle.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have (doubtful) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today/on 10-23-08 at 22.35, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (not NDX) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish
-0.32% versus SPX today/on 10-23, was an extremely bullish (correctly very short term bearish) +3.49% on 10-22, was a very bullish +1.68% on 10-21, was an extremely bearish -3.54% on 10-20, was a bearish -0.94% on 10-17, was an extremely bullish+4.88% on 10-16, was +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A now probably defunct (except NDX) Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The gold ETF GLD is trying to complete an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern (probably bottomed yesterday 10-22-08), that's Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08, since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (very short term bearish) +2.79% versus the XOI today/on 10-23, was a bullish +0.47% on 10-22, was a bullish +0.57% on 10-21, was a very bearish -1.47% on 10-20, was an extremely bearish -2.24% on 10-17 (which was correctly very short term bullish, pointing to strength on Monday 10-20), was an extremely bullish +5.22% on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX fell a sharp -2.66% today 10-23 versus SPX rising a significant +1.26%, which is a significant +1.40% rise in complacency (-2.66% + +1.26% = -1.40% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Friday 10-24.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 998.01, 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) remains in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) until proven otherwise, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, putting in a lower cycle low today. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on today 10-23's candle.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) probably put in a Wave 2 cycle low yesterday 10-22, of the short term Wave 3 upcycle since 10-16-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. The XOI put in a slightly higher bullish double bottom cycle low today, so, I'll be looking to trade the XOI ultra long via DIG tomorrow (watch DIG's upside gap at 34.50 from yesterday 10-22's open). Since the short term cycles were unclear today, until very late in the session, I didn't do any trading. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas Index) appeared to be in Wave 5 of a big intraday Wave 3 type move (began at 2:50ish) at session's end today (Wave 1 peaked at 2:35ish), of the upcycle that began late today (2:20ish), see the one day chart http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. After today see the 5 day chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.
So, after an intraday Wave 4 down type move bottoms (Wave 5 of Wave 3 pop should occur at the open/very early on tomorrow), I'll look to trade the XOI ultra long via DIG tomorrow, to catch the final Wave 5 of Wave 5 upcycle. I'm using a large 10 minute chart, that's very useful for finetuning (via Elliott Wave patterns, they're very useful, even on a 10 minute chart) entry and exit points.
The intraday one and five day candlestick XOI (or whatever index I happen to be trading) charts (at Yahoo, many indexes are real time or nearly so) are very useful for determining and finetuning the Elliott Wave count. I also use real time ASKResearch.com charting ($25/month).
Concerning GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags) one should obviously wait for a 5% major buy signal. HUI (and GDX/XAU) doesn't appear to have bottomed yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
As bullish as the NEM Lead Indicator has become, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, at a bearish -0.85% versus the XAU today/on 10-23, at an extremely bullish (which was correctly very short term bearish) +2.21% on 10-22, +2.78% on 10-21, +2.23% on 10-20, -2.02% on 10-17, +3.23% on 10-16, +5.62% on 10-15, -0.20% on 10-14, +2.42% on 10-13, a very important Wave 2 (since mid March) Cyclical Bear Market cycle low could occur any day now for GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags and silver lags gold).
The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) probably put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low today/on 10-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the large bullish inverse spike on 10-23's candle.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a lower cycle low today/on 10-23, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially (doubtful) a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-23's candle.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have (doubtful) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today/on 10-23-08 at 22.35, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (not NDX) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish
-0.32% versus SPX today/on 10-23, was an extremely bullish (correctly very short term bearish) +3.49% on 10-22, was a very bullish +1.68% on 10-21, was an extremely bearish -3.54% on 10-20, was a bearish -0.94% on 10-17, was an extremely bullish+4.88% on 10-16, was +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A now probably defunct (except NDX) Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The gold ETF GLD is trying to complete an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern (probably bottomed yesterday 10-22-08), that's Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08, since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (very short term bearish) +2.79% versus the XOI today/on 10-23, was a bullish +0.47% on 10-22, was a bullish +0.57% on 10-21, was a very bearish -1.47% on 10-20, was an extremely bearish -2.24% on 10-17 (which was correctly very short term bullish, pointing to strength on Monday 10-20), was an extremely bullish +5.22% on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX fell a sharp -2.66% today 10-23 versus SPX rising a significant +1.26%, which is a significant +1.40% rise in complacency (-2.66% + +1.26% = -1.40% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Friday 10-24.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 998.01, 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:42 PM
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