SPX's (S & P 500) Elliott Wave Count Might Change
SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Elliott Wave count might change, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, because, if 10-16's cycle low is taken out tomorrow 10-23, a definite and probably likely scenario, then SPX is in a short term Wave 2 down now, not, Wave 2 of a short term Wave 3. Of course, also watch the 10-10-08 cycle low, that's still just a potential Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
Pointing to SPX/market/most sectors weakness tomorrow 10-23 is the extremely bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +3.49% versus SPX today/on 10-22 (+1.68% on 10-21), that's actually very short term bearish, because, the market didn't respond to such a bullish WMT Lead Indicator.
Also, VIX, the SPX Volatility Index, rose a dramatic
+31.14% today 10-22, which is an unusually large rise in fear that points to significant SPX/market weakness early tomorrow.
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas Index, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) might also test 10-16's cycle low, that, like SPX, appears to be a short term Wave 2 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug) created a huge 9%ish very bullish breakaway type gap up at today 10-22's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dug&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, I traded DUG again today (should have done much better), buying at 51.267 and selling at 51.393, in a less than two minute day trade.
Early tomorrow, once I'm convinced that the XOI has bottomed, I'll be looking to trade the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) ultra long via DIG (watch the upside gap at 34.50 from today 10-22's open, and, the XOI's at 905.32), with backup trades being ultra long SPX/NDX/RUT via SSO/QLD/UWM. Obviously, if DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) creates another large bullish breakaway type gap at tomorrow's open, I'll look to trade DUG again. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
Concerning GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags) one should obviously wait for a 5% major buy signal. HUI (and GDX/XAU) doesn't appear to have bottomed yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
However, take it from a REAL market timer and a REAL trader, as opposed to a BSing gold charlatan quack, this might REALLY be it. As bullish as the NEM Lead Indicator has become, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, at an extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) +2.21% versus the XAU today/on 10-22, +2.78% on 10-21, +2.23% on 10-20, -2.02% on 10-17, +3.23% on 10-16, +5.62% on 10-15, -0.20% on 10-14, +2.42% on 10-13, a very important Wave 2 (since mid March) Cyclical Bear Market cycle low could occur any day now for GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags).
Tomorrow 10-23 has a good chance of being the GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags) Wave 2 (since mid March) Cyclical Bear Market cycle low. HUI hit 167.61 today, -16.32%, very extreme volatility, which is a sign that HUI and GDX/XAU might finally bottom tomorrow.
That's the best good news I can provide right now. As spectacular as the gold sector is in a Cyclical Bull Market, it's just as spectacular on the downside, which makes sense. The bigger the party/bubble the bigger the hangover/bust tends to be. That's just the way commodity/stock market/economic cycles work.
The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) put in (doubtful now) a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) also put in (doubtful now) a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a slightly lower bullish double bottom cycle low on 10-16, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle. NDX is in (doubtful now) a short term Wave 2 downcycle.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have (doubtful obviously) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low on 10-22-08 at 24.38, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (NDX on 10-16) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (very short term bearish) +3.49% versus SPX today/on 10-22, was a very bullish +1.68% on 10-21, was an extremely bearish -3.54% on 10-20, was a bearish -0.94% on 10-17, was an extremely bullish+4.88% on 10-16, was +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A now probably defunct Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The gold ETF GLD is trying to complete an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that's Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08, since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.47% versus the XOI today/on 10-22, was a bullish +0.57% on 10-21, was a very bearish -1.47% on 10-20, was an extremely bearish -2.24% on 10-17 (which was correctly very short term bullish, pointing to strength on Monday 10-20), was an extremely bullish +5.22% on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX rose an unusually large +31.14% today 10-22 versus SPX falling an unusually large -6.10%, which is an unusually large +25.04% rise in fear (+31.14% + -6.10% = +25.04% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Thursday 10-23.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 998.01, 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Pointing to SPX/market/most sectors weakness tomorrow 10-23 is the extremely bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +3.49% versus SPX today/on 10-22 (+1.68% on 10-21), that's actually very short term bearish, because, the market didn't respond to such a bullish WMT Lead Indicator.
Also, VIX, the SPX Volatility Index, rose a dramatic
+31.14% today 10-22, which is an unusually large rise in fear that points to significant SPX/market weakness early tomorrow.
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas Index, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) might also test 10-16's cycle low, that, like SPX, appears to be a short term Wave 2 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug) created a huge 9%ish very bullish breakaway type gap up at today 10-22's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dug&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, I traded DUG again today (should have done much better), buying at 51.267 and selling at 51.393, in a less than two minute day trade.
Early tomorrow, once I'm convinced that the XOI has bottomed, I'll be looking to trade the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) ultra long via DIG (watch the upside gap at 34.50 from today 10-22's open, and, the XOI's at 905.32), with backup trades being ultra long SPX/NDX/RUT via SSO/QLD/UWM. Obviously, if DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) creates another large bullish breakaway type gap at tomorrow's open, I'll look to trade DUG again. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
Concerning GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags) one should obviously wait for a 5% major buy signal. HUI (and GDX/XAU) doesn't appear to have bottomed yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
However, take it from a REAL market timer and a REAL trader, as opposed to a BSing gold charlatan quack, this might REALLY be it. As bullish as the NEM Lead Indicator has become, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, at an extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) +2.21% versus the XAU today/on 10-22, +2.78% on 10-21, +2.23% on 10-20, -2.02% on 10-17, +3.23% on 10-16, +5.62% on 10-15, -0.20% on 10-14, +2.42% on 10-13, a very important Wave 2 (since mid March) Cyclical Bear Market cycle low could occur any day now for GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags).
Tomorrow 10-23 has a good chance of being the GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags) Wave 2 (since mid March) Cyclical Bear Market cycle low. HUI hit 167.61 today, -16.32%, very extreme volatility, which is a sign that HUI and GDX/XAU might finally bottom tomorrow.
That's the best good news I can provide right now. As spectacular as the gold sector is in a Cyclical Bull Market, it's just as spectacular on the downside, which makes sense. The bigger the party/bubble the bigger the hangover/bust tends to be. That's just the way commodity/stock market/economic cycles work.
The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) put in (doubtful now) a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) also put in (doubtful now) a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a slightly lower bullish double bottom cycle low on 10-16, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle. NDX is in (doubtful now) a short term Wave 2 downcycle.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have (doubtful obviously) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low on 10-22-08 at 24.38, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (NDX on 10-16) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (very short term bearish) +3.49% versus SPX today/on 10-22, was a very bullish +1.68% on 10-21, was an extremely bearish -3.54% on 10-20, was a bearish -0.94% on 10-17, was an extremely bullish+4.88% on 10-16, was +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A now probably defunct Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The gold ETF GLD is trying to complete an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that's Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08, since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.47% versus the XOI today/on 10-22, was a bullish +0.57% on 10-21, was a very bearish -1.47% on 10-20, was an extremely bearish -2.24% on 10-17 (which was correctly very short term bullish, pointing to strength on Monday 10-20), was an extremely bullish +5.22% on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX rose an unusually large +31.14% today 10-22 versus SPX falling an unusually large -6.10%, which is an unusually large +25.04% rise in fear (+31.14% + -6.10% = +25.04% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Thursday 10-23.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 998.01, 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:08 PM
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