The Late Session SPX (S & P 500) Weakness Was Probably Wave 4 Down Of A Very Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle
The late session SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) weakness was probably Wave 4 down of a very short term Wave 1 upcycle (Wave 1 of a short term Wave 3) that began early yesterday 10-16-08 (up down up down pattern), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.
It looks like SPX (S & P 500) will probably try to fill it's upside gap at 998.01 (from 10-15's open) on Monday, in Wave 5 up of the very short term Wave 1 upcycle. NDX (NASDAQ 100) filled it's upside gap at 1364.59 from 10-15's open today.
Early strength on Monday jives with the very sharp rise in fear today, since VIX rose a very sharp +4.02% today 10-17 versus SPX falling a significant -0.62%, which is a very sharp +3.40% rise in fear (+4.02% + -0.62% = +3.40% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some very sharp strength early on Monday 10-20.
I day traded (a little under 12 minutes) QLD (Ultra QQQ ProShares, Ultra NDX (NASDAQ 100) basically) today, with an entry point at 35.405 and an exit point at 35.707. I'll look to go long QLD again early on Monday, to catch Wave 5 up of the very short term Wave 1 upcycle that began early yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Looking at SPX's 1 day intraday candlestick chart, NDX's looks similar, the session cycle high at 1:35 pm, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is probably the Wave 3 cycle high of the very short term Wave 1 upcycle since early yesterday 10-16. The white candle with no spike would be unusual for a final important cycle high.
Also, SPX (S & P 500) clearly has an up down up down pattern since early yesterday 10-16, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c, and, looks like it'll try to fill 10-15's upside gap at 998.01 on Monday. It's a likely scenario.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.94% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-17, and, it was an extremely bullish +4.88% on 10-16, which jives with SPX's very short term Wave 1 upcycle (since early yesterday 10-16) peaking on Monday or Tuesday.
HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) hit 196.17 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. The reliable gold sector Newmont Mining (NEM) Lead Indicator was (unfortunately) an extremely bearish -2.02% versus the XAU today/on 10-17.
The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early yesterday 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) also put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early yesterday as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a slightly lower bullish double bottom cycle low yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle. NDX is in a short term Wave 1 upcycle.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have (doubtful obviously) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today 10-17-08 at 26.42, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the large somewhat bullish inverse spike on today's candle, that obviously isn't bullish enough to be a likely/potential Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.02% versus the XAU today/on 10-17 (which is modestly bullish on a very short term basis, modestly because it's borderline), was an extremely bullish +3.23% on 10-16, and, it was an extremely bullish +5.62% on 10-15.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (NDX yesterday 10-16) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.94% versus SPX today/on 10-17, was an extremely bullish+4.88% on 10-16, was a nearly very bullish +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A now probably defunct Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The gold ETF GLD appears to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern today (Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08), since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.24% versus the XOI today/on 10-17 (which is very short term bullish, points to strength on Monday), was an extremely bullish +5.22% on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX rose a very sharp +4.02% today 10-17 versus SPX falling a significant -0.62%, which is a very sharp +3.40% rise in fear (+4.02% + -0.62% = +3.40% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some very sharp strength early on Monday 10-20.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 998.01, 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
It looks like SPX (S & P 500) will probably try to fill it's upside gap at 998.01 (from 10-15's open) on Monday, in Wave 5 up of the very short term Wave 1 upcycle. NDX (NASDAQ 100) filled it's upside gap at 1364.59 from 10-15's open today.
Early strength on Monday jives with the very sharp rise in fear today, since VIX rose a very sharp +4.02% today 10-17 versus SPX falling a significant -0.62%, which is a very sharp +3.40% rise in fear (+4.02% + -0.62% = +3.40% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some very sharp strength early on Monday 10-20.
I day traded (a little under 12 minutes) QLD (Ultra QQQ ProShares, Ultra NDX (NASDAQ 100) basically) today, with an entry point at 35.405 and an exit point at 35.707. I'll look to go long QLD again early on Monday, to catch Wave 5 up of the very short term Wave 1 upcycle that began early yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Looking at SPX's 1 day intraday candlestick chart, NDX's looks similar, the session cycle high at 1:35 pm, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, is probably the Wave 3 cycle high of the very short term Wave 1 upcycle since early yesterday 10-16. The white candle with no spike would be unusual for a final important cycle high.
Also, SPX (S & P 500) clearly has an up down up down pattern since early yesterday 10-16, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c, and, looks like it'll try to fill 10-15's upside gap at 998.01 on Monday. It's a likely scenario.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.94% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-17, and, it was an extremely bullish +4.88% on 10-16, which jives with SPX's very short term Wave 1 upcycle (since early yesterday 10-16) peaking on Monday or Tuesday.
HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) hit 196.17 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. The reliable gold sector Newmont Mining (NEM) Lead Indicator was (unfortunately) an extremely bearish -2.02% versus the XAU today/on 10-17.
The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early yesterday 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) also put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early yesterday as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a slightly lower bullish double bottom cycle low yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle. NDX is in a short term Wave 1 upcycle.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have (doubtful obviously) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today 10-17-08 at 26.42, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the large somewhat bullish inverse spike on today's candle, that obviously isn't bullish enough to be a likely/potential Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.02% versus the XAU today/on 10-17 (which is modestly bullish on a very short term basis, modestly because it's borderline), was an extremely bullish +3.23% on 10-16, and, it was an extremely bullish +5.62% on 10-15.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (NDX yesterday 10-16) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.94% versus SPX today/on 10-17, was an extremely bullish+4.88% on 10-16, was a nearly very bullish +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A now probably defunct Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The gold ETF GLD appears to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern today (Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08), since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.24% versus the XOI today/on 10-17 (which is very short term bullish, points to strength on Monday), was an extremely bullish +5.22% on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX rose a very sharp +4.02% today 10-17 versus SPX falling a significant -0.62%, which is a very sharp +3.40% rise in fear (+4.02% + -0.62% = +3.40% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some very sharp strength early on Monday 10-20.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 998.01, 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:13 PM
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