Obviously, The S & P 500 (SPX)/Major Averages Appear To Have Bottomed On Friday 10-10-08
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/major averages appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish) -4.61% versus SPX today/on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
In the gold sector reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today 10-13-08 at 27.96, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on today 10-13-08's candle.
HUI might have (doubtful, NEM usually bottoms first) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low at 234.35 on 10-6-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI has a bullish short term triple bottom, as does the XAU, but, they probably didn't bottom yet.
The XAU might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-14-08) cycle low at 96.05 today 10-13-06, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) might have (doubtful, NEM usually bottoms first) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low at 24.68 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) +2.42% versus the XAU today/on 10-13, -1.87% on 10-10, -3.17% on 10-9, -2.39% on 10-8, -3.97% on 10-7. The extremely bearish gold sector NEM Lead Indicator the past week obviously casts a great deal of doubt on whether GDX/HUI/XAU have bottomed.
The extremely bearish 5 day gold sector NEM Lead Indicator means that I'll be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) tomorrow and/or Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The gold ETF GLD appears to have completed a very short term Wave A downcycle (Wave A of a short term Wave C) since putting in a short term Wave B type cycle high at 90.84, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
I will look to trade the major averages either ultra long (early on) or short (mid/late session maybe) tomorrow via either SSO/QLD/UWM or SDS/QID/TWM, whichever makes sense. I'll also look to possibly short either GDX or GLD (via DZZ probably). I might trade DIG (Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dig) also.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish) -4.61% versus SPX today/on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
In the gold sector reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today 10-13-08 at 27.96, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on today 10-13-08's candle.
HUI might have (doubtful, NEM usually bottoms first) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low at 234.35 on 10-6-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI has a bullish short term triple bottom, as does the XAU, but, they probably didn't bottom yet.
The XAU might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-14-08) cycle low at 96.05 today 10-13-06, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) might have (doubtful, NEM usually bottoms first) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low at 24.68 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) +2.42% versus the XAU today/on 10-13, -1.87% on 10-10, -3.17% on 10-9, -2.39% on 10-8, -3.97% on 10-7. The extremely bearish gold sector NEM Lead Indicator the past week obviously casts a great deal of doubt on whether GDX/HUI/XAU have bottomed.
The extremely bearish 5 day gold sector NEM Lead Indicator means that I'll be looking to short GDX (Gold Miners ETF) tomorrow and/or Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The gold ETF GLD appears to have completed a very short term Wave A downcycle (Wave A of a short term Wave C) since putting in a short term Wave B type cycle high at 90.84, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
I will look to trade the major averages either ultra long (early on) or short (mid/late session maybe) tomorrow via either SSO/QLD/UWM or SDS/QID/TWM, whichever makes sense. I'll also look to possibly short either GDX or GLD (via DZZ probably). I might trade DIG (Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dig) also.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:29 PM
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