Major Alert - Reliable Gold Sector Lead Indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) Took Out 10-6-08's Cycle Low!
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) took out 10-6-08's cycle low early today 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, with a cycle low so far today at 30.73 versus 10-6-08's cycle low at 32.27, which means that GDX/HUI/XAU probably DID NOT put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on 10-6-08 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui), and, reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) obviously didn't put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on 10-6-08, but, might have early today.
The spectacular GDX/HUI/XAU upcycle from 10-6-08 until 10-8-08 (HUI rose nearly +28%, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) was probably just a huge countertrend Wave B spike move. To say that this market is unbelievably treacherous is an understatement. I will NOT be looking to day trade GDX or AEM long today.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, at -3.17% versus the XAU on 10-9, -2.39% on 10-8, -3.97% on 10-7.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
"My" downside target (where the primary multi year trendline is, basic stuff) for gold is $500 to $550 (see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), which obviously means that gold probably has a long way to go on the downside (lagging GDX/HUI/XAU).
On a positive note the S & P 500 (SPX)/major averages Cyclical Bear Market might have ended early today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the (right now at least) very large very bullish inverse spike on today 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The spectacular GDX/HUI/XAU upcycle from 10-6-08 until 10-8-08 (HUI rose nearly +28%, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) was probably just a huge countertrend Wave B spike move. To say that this market is unbelievably treacherous is an understatement. I will NOT be looking to day trade GDX or AEM long today.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, at -3.17% versus the XAU on 10-9, -2.39% on 10-8, -3.97% on 10-7.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
"My" downside target (where the primary multi year trendline is, basic stuff) for gold is $500 to $550 (see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), which obviously means that gold probably has a long way to go on the downside (lagging GDX/HUI/XAU).
On a positive note the S & P 500 (SPX)/major averages Cyclical Bear Market might have ended early today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the (right now at least) very large very bullish inverse spike on today 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
6:58 AM
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