The Major Averages Crash Resumes, And, GM (Down -31.11% Today) And Ford (Down -21.80% Today) Are On The Ropes
The major averages crash resumed today (SPX down -7.62% today), and, GM (down -31.11% today) and Ford (down -21.80% today) are on the ropes, see SPX (S & P 500) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, see GM at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gm, and, see Ford at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24f.
GM and Ford might be the next bailout, or, they might enter bankruptcy protection. They are really finance companies, in that they derive all or nearly all of their earnings (I believe) from their finance companies (financing cars, warranties, etc. GM owns Ditech Mortgage).
If GM and/or Ford fall below 1.00, which might occur tomorrow or next week, and, they stay there for a while (might be 10 days, the NASDAQ has that rule I think, I'm not sure what the NYSE's rule is), they could get delisted.
GM and Ford should have cut pay/benefits to where they MAKE money selling cars, instead of losing money every time they sell a car and making money on financing/financial activities/businesses.
Looking at the S & P 500's (SPX) candle today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, it doesn't look like SPX/major averages bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low today, because, there isn't the usual large bullish inverse spike that tends to mark important cycle lows.
In this case a very important Cyclical Bear Market cycle low is likely, so, a very large very bullish inverse spike will probably occur when SPX/major averages bottom/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
A Cyclical Bear Market cycle low appears to be imminent, and, might occur tomorrow 10-10-08, which jives with the extremely bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator discussed next.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish recently, at a very bullish +1.83% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
In the now very interesting gold sector HUI/XAU/GDX (gold probably didn't bottom yet) probably did Wave 4 down of the monster short term Wave 1 up cycle since 10-6-08 (up down up down pattern), when they probably entered a 5+ year Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c. So, tomorrow and possibly early next week there should be a huge Wave 5 spike move to complete the monster short term Wave 1 upcycle that began on 10-6-08.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish short term, which is however very short term bullish, because, HUI/XAU/GDX didn't plunge in response to such a bearish NEM Lead Indicator, it was -3.17% versus the XAU today/on 10-9, -2.39% on 10-8, -3.97% on 10-7.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish short term, at +1.83% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, which jives with a strong gold sector the next day or two.
Tomorrow I'll be looking to trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) or AEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aem) long early on, and, I'll be looking to possibly trade, IF they appear to have hit a major cycle low, DIG (Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dig) and/or SSO/QLD/UWM (Ultra Long SPX/NDX/RUT ETFs).
HUI/XAU/GDX appear to have entered a likely 5 to 7 year Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market on 10-6-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Note that HUI/XAU/GDX have done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since mid March, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, which often is a good check of whether a complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern has occurred.
Also, there's a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-6-08's candle for HUI/XAU/GDX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. 10-6-08 looks like an important, probably very important in this case, cycle low.
Reliable lead indicator NEM's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) cycle low at 32.27 on 10-6-08 is probably/potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low.
HUI fell about -55% in the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui), and, landed in the cycle low target range of 220 to 250, at 234.35.
Also, the gigantic HUI +27.93% two day rally that occurred from 10-6 to 10-8 looks like more than just a dramatic countertrend Wave B short term bounce, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Please keep in mind that GDX/HUI/XAU have to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the downtrend line since 3-17-08) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that GDX/HUI/XAU very likely put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low and entered a multi year (probably 5 to 7 years) Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.
"My" downside target (where the primary multi year trendline is, basic stuff) for gold is $500 to $550 (see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), which obviously means that gold probably has a long way to go on the downside (lagging GDX/HUI/XAU).
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) might have but probably didn't put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since late May, it might be an entire cyclical bear market bottoming (Wave C major intermediate term downcycle, not Wave A in that case), I have to put some thought into it) cycle low today 10-9, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.
The oil & gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bearish
-0.49% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) today/on 10-9, was a bullish+0.92% on 10-8, was an extremely bullish (which was correctly very short term bearish) +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
GM and Ford might be the next bailout, or, they might enter bankruptcy protection. They are really finance companies, in that they derive all or nearly all of their earnings (I believe) from their finance companies (financing cars, warranties, etc. GM owns Ditech Mortgage).
If GM and/or Ford fall below 1.00, which might occur tomorrow or next week, and, they stay there for a while (might be 10 days, the NASDAQ has that rule I think, I'm not sure what the NYSE's rule is), they could get delisted.
GM and Ford should have cut pay/benefits to where they MAKE money selling cars, instead of losing money every time they sell a car and making money on financing/financial activities/businesses.
Looking at the S & P 500's (SPX) candle today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, it doesn't look like SPX/major averages bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low today, because, there isn't the usual large bullish inverse spike that tends to mark important cycle lows.
In this case a very important Cyclical Bear Market cycle low is likely, so, a very large very bullish inverse spike will probably occur when SPX/major averages bottom/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
A Cyclical Bear Market cycle low appears to be imminent, and, might occur tomorrow 10-10-08, which jives with the extremely bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator discussed next.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish recently, at a very bullish +1.83% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
In the now very interesting gold sector HUI/XAU/GDX (gold probably didn't bottom yet) probably did Wave 4 down of the monster short term Wave 1 up cycle since 10-6-08 (up down up down pattern), when they probably entered a 5+ year Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, see the daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, see the 5 day intraday candlestick chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c. So, tomorrow and possibly early next week there should be a huge Wave 5 spike move to complete the monster short term Wave 1 upcycle that began on 10-6-08.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish short term, which is however very short term bullish, because, HUI/XAU/GDX didn't plunge in response to such a bearish NEM Lead Indicator, it was -3.17% versus the XAU today/on 10-9, -2.39% on 10-8, -3.97% on 10-7.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish short term, at +1.83% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, which jives with a strong gold sector the next day or two.
Tomorrow I'll be looking to trade GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) or AEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aem) long early on, and, I'll be looking to possibly trade, IF they appear to have hit a major cycle low, DIG (Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dig) and/or SSO/QLD/UWM (Ultra Long SPX/NDX/RUT ETFs).
HUI/XAU/GDX appear to have entered a likely 5 to 7 year Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market on 10-6-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Note that HUI/XAU/GDX have done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since mid March, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, which often is a good check of whether a complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern has occurred.
Also, there's a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-6-08's candle for HUI/XAU/GDX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. 10-6-08 looks like an important, probably very important in this case, cycle low.
Reliable lead indicator NEM's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) cycle low at 32.27 on 10-6-08 is probably/potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low.
HUI fell about -55% in the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui), and, landed in the cycle low target range of 220 to 250, at 234.35.
Also, the gigantic HUI +27.93% two day rally that occurred from 10-6 to 10-8 looks like more than just a dramatic countertrend Wave B short term bounce, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Please keep in mind that GDX/HUI/XAU have to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the downtrend line since 3-17-08) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that GDX/HUI/XAU very likely put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low and entered a multi year (probably 5 to 7 years) Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.
"My" downside target (where the primary multi year trendline is, basic stuff) for gold is $500 to $550 (see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), which obviously means that gold probably has a long way to go on the downside (lagging GDX/HUI/XAU).
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) might have but probably didn't put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since late May, it might be an entire cyclical bear market bottoming (Wave C major intermediate term downcycle, not Wave A in that case), I have to put some thought into it) cycle low today 10-9, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.
The oil & gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bearish
-0.49% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) today/on 10-9, was a bullish+0.92% on 10-8, was an extremely bullish (which was correctly very short term bearish) +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:41 PM
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