HUI/XAU/GDX Appear To Have Entered A Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market On 10-6-08
HUI/XAU/GDX appear to have entered a likely 5 to 7 year Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market on 10-6-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
Note that HUI/XAU/GDX have done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since mid March, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, which often is a good check of whether a complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern has occurred.
Also, there's a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-6-08's candle for HUI/XAU/GDX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. 10-6-08 looks like an important, probably very important in this case, cycle low.
Reliable lead indicator NEM's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) cycle low at 32.27 on 10-6-08 is probably/potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low.
HUI fell about -55% in the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui), and, landed in the cycle low target range of 220 to 250, at 234.35 (299.80 HUI cycle high today).
Also, the gigantic HUI +27.93% two day rally so far (more upside likely early tomorrow), since the likely/potential HUI/XAU/GDX Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on 10-6-08, looks like more than just a dramatic countertrend Wave B short term bounce, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.39% versus the XAU today/on 10-8, which is very short term bullish, pointing to more likely upside (probably just early) tomorrow, and, was an extremely bearish -3.97% on 10-7, which correctly pointed to strength today.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +0.60% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-8, jives with some strength tomorrow.
Please keep in mind that GDX/HUI/XAU have to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the downtrend line since 3-17-08) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that GDX/HUI/XAU very likely put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low and entered a multi year (probably 5 to 7 years) Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.
"My" downside target (where the primary multi year trendline is, basic stuff) for gold is $500 to $550 (see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), which obviously means that gold probably has a long way to go on the downside (lagging GDX/HUI/XAU).
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) might have but probably didn't put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since late May) cycle low today 10-8, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.
The oil & gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish
+0.92% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) today/on 10-8, was an extremely bullish (which was correctly very short term bearish) +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Looking at the S & P 500's (SPX) candle today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, it doesn't look like SPX/major averages bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low today, because, there isn't the usual large bullish inverse spike that tends to mark important cycle lows. In this case a very important Cyclical Bear Market cycle low is likely, so, a very large very bullish inverse spike will probably occur when SPX/major averages bottom/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
Also, one would expect the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +0.60% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-8, to have been more bullish today, if SPX had bottomed.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
I'll be looking to trade DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug) and/or SDS/QID/TWM (Ultrashort SPX/NDX/RUT ETFs) tomorrow.
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) was doing a Wave A down type move at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, after a countertrend Wave B rebound occurs early tomorrow, I'll look to buy DUG early in an XOI Wave C downcycle type move.
VIX rose an unusually large +7.32% today 10-8 versus SPX falling a significant -1.13%, which is an unusually large +6.19% rise in fear (+7.32% + -1.13% = +6.19% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Thursday 10-9.
Once SPX (S & P 500) bottoms I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Note that HUI/XAU/GDX have done an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since mid March, that's also an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 (down up down up down) pattern, which often is a good check of whether a complete Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern has occurred.
Also, there's a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-6-08's candle for HUI/XAU/GDX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. 10-6-08 looks like an important, probably very important in this case, cycle low.
Reliable lead indicator NEM's (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) cycle low at 32.27 on 10-6-08 is probably/potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low.
HUI fell about -55% in the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui), and, landed in the cycle low target range of 220 to 250, at 234.35 (299.80 HUI cycle high today).
Also, the gigantic HUI +27.93% two day rally so far (more upside likely early tomorrow), since the likely/potential HUI/XAU/GDX Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on 10-6-08, looks like more than just a dramatic countertrend Wave B short term bounce, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish -2.39% versus the XAU today/on 10-8, which is very short term bullish, pointing to more likely upside (probably just early) tomorrow, and, was an extremely bearish -3.97% on 10-7, which correctly pointed to strength today.
Also, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +0.60% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-8, jives with some strength tomorrow.
Please keep in mind that GDX/HUI/XAU have to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the downtrend line since 3-17-08) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that GDX/HUI/XAU very likely put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low and entered a multi year (probably 5 to 7 years) Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.
"My" downside target (where the primary multi year trendline is, basic stuff) for gold is $500 to $550 (see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), which obviously means that gold probably has a long way to go on the downside (lagging GDX/HUI/XAU).
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) might have but probably didn't put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since late May) cycle low today 10-8, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.
The oil & gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish
+0.92% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) today/on 10-8, was an extremely bullish (which was correctly very short term bearish) +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Looking at the S & P 500's (SPX) candle today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, it doesn't look like SPX/major averages bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low today, because, there isn't the usual large bullish inverse spike that tends to mark important cycle lows. In this case a very important Cyclical Bear Market cycle low is likely, so, a very large very bullish inverse spike will probably occur when SPX/major averages bottom/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
Also, one would expect the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +0.60% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-8, to have been more bullish today, if SPX had bottomed.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
I'll be looking to trade DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug) and/or SDS/QID/TWM (Ultrashort SPX/NDX/RUT ETFs) tomorrow.
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) was doing a Wave A down type move at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, after a countertrend Wave B rebound occurs early tomorrow, I'll look to buy DUG early in an XOI Wave C downcycle type move.
VIX rose an unusually large +7.32% today 10-8 versus SPX falling a significant -1.13%, which is an unusually large +6.19% rise in fear (+7.32% + -1.13% = +6.19% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Thursday 10-9.
Once SPX (S & P 500) bottoms I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Once SPX puts in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are probably additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:24 PM
1 Comments:
Bob Hoye recently noted that if the SPX closes below 1100 this week then a this would trigger a Weekly Capitulation Alert.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye100808.html
And to expect a relief rally to retrace 40-505 of the decline from the Aug highs.
Assuming the Aug high was 1300, and the lows at 970 in SPX. Then the retracement could reach up to 1130-1135.
By
Unknown, at 8:05 PM
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