The Crash Lives, Major Cycle Lows Did NOT Occur Yesterday
SPX (S & P 500)/major averages did NOT bottom/put in major cycle lows yesterday 10-6, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX closed right at it's session cycle low 996.23, and, it looks like tomorrow will be another bad day, at least early on. SPX's candle today is a relatively bearish black one (close below the open) with a medium bearish spike.
The market/SPX (S & P 500), not surprisingly, is extremely oversold. SPX's Williams %R is at an extremely oversold -100, which is the maximum point. RSI is at an extremely oversold 22.55.
A major cycle low might occur early tomorrow for the major averages/many sectors. SPX was in a Wave C of Wave C type move at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Whether it is the final Wave C of Wave C type move before a major cycle low occurs is in question obviously.
Given the huge % decline the market has experienced in recent weeks, there's a good chance that a major cycle low is imminent. The major averages' and the gold sector's (GDX/HUI/XAU (gold lags and silver lags gold)) Cyclical Bear Market is probably coming to an end, possibly tomorrow.
Obviously, a major buy signal must occur, an index/commodity/stock etc has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was only (closed at, was bearish or very bearish most of the day, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) modestly bullish today, at +0.45% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 10-7, which points to more weakness tomorrow.
The gold and oil/gas sectors also very likely didn't bottom/put in major cycle lows
yesterday 10-6, see HUI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Both HUI and the XOI have large bearish spikes on today's candle.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish) -3.97% versus the XAU today/on 10-7 (+2.57% on 10-6, +3.09% on 10-3, +4.06% on 10-2), which points to likely early GDX/HUI/XAU strength tomorrow, but, also indicates that they probably didn't bottom yesterday 10-6.
The oil & gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) +4.50% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2, which indicates that they probably didn't bottom yesterday 10-6.
I'll be looking to trade DIG (Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dig) and/or AEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aem) long tomorrow (the Elliott Wave patterns and an extremely oversold condition indicate that one should LOOK to trade long, if one is hellbent on day trading tomorrow; obviously, risk is extremely high right now), if I think the market bottomed (at least short term)/possibly put in major cycle lows.
Early on I'll look for an opportunity to short something. If the action is too rapid and volatile, a definite possibility, I might do nothing.
Waiting for a strong Wave 1 type move intraday, then looking to go long shortly after an intraday Wave 2 downcycle bottoms (modestly above the Wave C cycle low), which is early in a Wave 3 upcycle type move, makes sense. That's another way of saying don't bottom pick this market and use the reliable Elliott Wave patterns. I know I don't need to tell my long time readers that.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The market/SPX (S & P 500), not surprisingly, is extremely oversold. SPX's Williams %R is at an extremely oversold -100, which is the maximum point. RSI is at an extremely oversold 22.55.
A major cycle low might occur early tomorrow for the major averages/many sectors. SPX was in a Wave C of Wave C type move at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Whether it is the final Wave C of Wave C type move before a major cycle low occurs is in question obviously.
Given the huge % decline the market has experienced in recent weeks, there's a good chance that a major cycle low is imminent. The major averages' and the gold sector's (GDX/HUI/XAU (gold lags and silver lags gold)) Cyclical Bear Market is probably coming to an end, possibly tomorrow.
Obviously, a major buy signal must occur, an index/commodity/stock etc has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was only (closed at, was bearish or very bearish most of the day, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) modestly bullish today, at +0.45% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 10-7, which points to more weakness tomorrow.
The gold and oil/gas sectors also very likely didn't bottom/put in major cycle lows
yesterday 10-6, see HUI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Both HUI and the XOI have large bearish spikes on today's candle.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish) -3.97% versus the XAU today/on 10-7 (+2.57% on 10-6, +3.09% on 10-3, +4.06% on 10-2), which points to likely early GDX/HUI/XAU strength tomorrow, but, also indicates that they probably didn't bottom yesterday 10-6.
The oil & gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) +4.50% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2, which indicates that they probably didn't bottom yesterday 10-6.
I'll be looking to trade DIG (Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dig) and/or AEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aem) long tomorrow (the Elliott Wave patterns and an extremely oversold condition indicate that one should LOOK to trade long, if one is hellbent on day trading tomorrow; obviously, risk is extremely high right now), if I think the market bottomed (at least short term)/possibly put in major cycle lows.
Early on I'll look for an opportunity to short something. If the action is too rapid and volatile, a definite possibility, I might do nothing.
Waiting for a strong Wave 1 type move intraday, then looking to go long shortly after an intraday Wave 2 downcycle bottoms (modestly above the Wave C cycle low), which is early in a Wave 3 upcycle type move, makes sense. That's another way of saying don't bottom pick this market and use the reliable Elliott Wave patterns. I know I don't need to tell my long time readers that.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:26 PM
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