GDX and the XAU Took Out the 10-6-08 Cycle Low
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and the XAU took out the 10-6-08 cycle low today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, and, HUI should soon follow. It's doubtful that HUI will bottom above 200 when the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low occurs.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.87% versus the XAU today/on 10-10, and, it was extremely bearish (at or greater than -2.00%) in each of the three prior sessions, at -3.17% on 10-9, -2.39% on 10-8, and -3.97% on 10-7.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM annihilated it's 10-6-08 cycle low at 32.27, with a cycle low today at 28.50, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, that probably isn't a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
"My" downside target (where the primary multi year trendline is, basic stuff) for gold is $500 to $550 (see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), which obviously means that gold probably has a long way to go on the downside (lagging GDX/HUI/XAU).
Please keep in mind that, once GDX/HUI/XAU finally bottom, they have to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the downtrend line since 3-17-08) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that GDX/HUI/XAU very likely put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low and entered a multi year (probably 5 to 7 years) Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.
On a positive note (on a day like this, this IS positive) the S & P 500 (SPX)/major averages Cyclical Bear Market might have but probably didn't bottom today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on today 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was only slightly bullish today, at +0.21% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 10-10, which casts more doubt on SPX having bottomed today, but, is extremely bullish recently, at +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
The humongous percentage decline in SPX (S & P 500)/major averages/many sectors recently, plus the extremely bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, points to an imminent Cyclical Bear Market cycle low. A Cyclical Bear Market cycle low might occur next week.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) might have but probably didn't put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low today 10-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.
The oil & gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish
-2.60% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) today/on 10-10 (which is very short term bullish typically (key word)), was a bearish -0.49% on 10-9, was a bullish +0.92% on 10-8, was an extremely bullish (which was correctly very short term bearish) +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
The intraday oil & gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator turned extremely bearish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=,p12,fs,w14&c=xom.
Also, XOM (Exxon Mobil) created a huge extremely bearish likely breakaway type gap at today 10-10-08's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=xom&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. XOM gapped down from Thursday's close at 68.00 to open today at 63.86, which is a huge -6.09% gap down at the open today.
One should watch XOM's (Exxon Mobil) upside gap at 68 early on Monday. Assuming 68 doesn't get filled I'll look to trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug).
I'll also be watching DUG's downside likely bullish breakaway gap at 64.70 from today's open (opened at 73.57, which is a huge likely bullish breakaway type gap obviously, however, given the current extreme volatility, it's probably about 50/50, that is, a 50% chance of being a bullish breakaway type gap).
As long as XOM's (Exxon Mobil) upside gap at 68 is a bearish breakaway type gap, I'll probably look to trade DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug) early on Monday.
I'll be looking to day trade DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug) or SDS/QID/TWM (Ultrashort SPX/NDX/RUT ETFs) on Monday.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.87% versus the XAU today/on 10-10, and, it was extremely bearish (at or greater than -2.00%) in each of the three prior sessions, at -3.17% on 10-9, -2.39% on 10-8, and -3.97% on 10-7.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM annihilated it's 10-6-08 cycle low at 32.27, with a cycle low today at 28.50, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, that probably isn't a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
"My" downside target (where the primary multi year trendline is, basic stuff) for gold is $500 to $550 (see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), which obviously means that gold probably has a long way to go on the downside (lagging GDX/HUI/XAU).
Please keep in mind that, once GDX/HUI/XAU finally bottom, they have to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the downtrend line since 3-17-08) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that GDX/HUI/XAU very likely put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low and entered a multi year (probably 5 to 7 years) Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market.
On a positive note (on a day like this, this IS positive) the S & P 500 (SPX)/major averages Cyclical Bear Market might have but probably didn't bottom today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on today 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was only slightly bullish today, at +0.21% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 10-10, which casts more doubt on SPX having bottomed today, but, is extremely bullish recently, at +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
The humongous percentage decline in SPX (S & P 500)/major averages/many sectors recently, plus the extremely bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, points to an imminent Cyclical Bear Market cycle low. A Cyclical Bear Market cycle low might occur next week.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) might have but probably didn't put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low today 10-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi.
The oil & gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish
-2.60% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) today/on 10-10 (which is very short term bullish typically (key word)), was a bearish -0.49% on 10-9, was a bullish +0.92% on 10-8, was an extremely bullish (which was correctly very short term bearish) +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
The intraday oil & gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator turned extremely bearish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=,p12,fs,w14&c=xom.
Also, XOM (Exxon Mobil) created a huge extremely bearish likely breakaway type gap at today 10-10-08's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=xom&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. XOM gapped down from Thursday's close at 68.00 to open today at 63.86, which is a huge -6.09% gap down at the open today.
One should watch XOM's (Exxon Mobil) upside gap at 68 early on Monday. Assuming 68 doesn't get filled I'll look to trade ultra short via DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug).
I'll also be watching DUG's downside likely bullish breakaway gap at 64.70 from today's open (opened at 73.57, which is a huge likely bullish breakaway type gap obviously, however, given the current extreme volatility, it's probably about 50/50, that is, a 50% chance of being a bullish breakaway type gap).
As long as XOM's (Exxon Mobil) upside gap at 68 is a bearish breakaway type gap, I'll probably look to trade DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug) early on Monday.
I'll be looking to day trade DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dug) or SDS/QID/TWM (Ultrashort SPX/NDX/RUT ETFs) on Monday.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:34 PM
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