The Nature Of Cycles Was At Work Today Baby
Since SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and some major averages as well as XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) probably put in Cyclical Bear Market cycle lows on 10-10-08 (NDX probably didn't, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx), based on the nature of cycles, they should put in short term Wave 2 down cycle lows only modestly above the 10-10-08 cycle lows, such that their new Cyclical Bull Market uptrend begins relatively flat, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Therefore, SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)
and some major averages as well as XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) short term Wave 2 downcycle (began early yesterday 10-14-08) probably didn't bottom yet, and, will probably do so early tomorrow, which jives with the very bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +0.98% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 10-15, +0.42% on 10-14.
GDX/HUI/XAU (HUI fell -10.40%/XAU fell -11.36% today 10-15) took out their recent lows today, that were unlikely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since mid March 2008) cycle lows anyway, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +5.62% versus the XAU today/on 10-15, which is very bearish on a very short term basis, and, points to likely severe gold sector weakness tomorrow.
I'll be looking to day trade the Russell 2000 ultra long via UWM, or, more likely (they both look good), the XOI ultra long via DIG (Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dig) tomorrow, once I'm convinced the short term Wave 2 downcycle has bottomed. I'll also be looking to day trade short GDX and GLD (maybe I'll double short GLD via DZZ instead of shorting GLD). I might hold a GLD short overnight. Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (not NDX) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a nearly very bullish
+0.98% versus SPX today/on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
In the gold sector reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low on 10-13-08 at 27.96, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-13-08's candle.
HUI did not (no surprise, NEM usually bottoms first) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low at 234.35 on 10-6-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The XAU did not put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-14-08) cycle low at 96.05 on 10-13-06, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) did not (no surprise, NEM usually bottoms first) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low at 24.68 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) +5.62% versus the XAU today/on 10-15, was a slightly bearish -0.20% on 10-14, was an extremely bullish +2.42% on 10-13, -1.87% on 10-10, -3.17% on 10-9, -2.39% on 10-8, -3.97% on 10-7.
The gold ETF GLD appears to have completed a very short term Wave A downcycle (Wave A of a short term Wave C) on 10-13-08 since putting in a short term Wave B type cycle high at 90.84, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.72% versus the XOI today/on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX rose an unusually large +25.61% today 10-15 versus SPX falling an unusually large -9.04%, which is an unusually large +16.57% rise in fear (+25.61% + -9.04% = +16.57% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Thursday 10-16.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Therefore, SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)
and some major averages as well as XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) short term Wave 2 downcycle (began early yesterday 10-14-08) probably didn't bottom yet, and, will probably do so early tomorrow, which jives with the very bullish broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +0.98% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 10-15, +0.42% on 10-14.
GDX/HUI/XAU (HUI fell -10.40%/XAU fell -11.36% today 10-15) took out their recent lows today, that were unlikely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since mid March 2008) cycle lows anyway, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +5.62% versus the XAU today/on 10-15, which is very bearish on a very short term basis, and, points to likely severe gold sector weakness tomorrow.
I'll be looking to day trade the Russell 2000 ultra long via UWM, or, more likely (they both look good), the XOI ultra long via DIG (Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dig) tomorrow, once I'm convinced the short term Wave 2 downcycle has bottomed. I'll also be looking to day trade short GDX and GLD (maybe I'll double short GLD via DZZ instead of shorting GLD). I might hold a GLD short overnight. Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (not NDX) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a nearly very bullish
+0.98% versus SPX today/on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
In the gold sector reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low on 10-13-08 at 27.96, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-13-08's candle.
HUI did not (no surprise, NEM usually bottoms first) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low at 234.35 on 10-6-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The XAU did not put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-14-08) cycle low at 96.05 on 10-13-06, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) did not (no surprise, NEM usually bottoms first) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low at 24.68 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) +5.62% versus the XAU today/on 10-15, was a slightly bearish -0.20% on 10-14, was an extremely bullish +2.42% on 10-13, -1.87% on 10-10, -3.17% on 10-9, -2.39% on 10-8, -3.97% on 10-7.
The gold ETF GLD appears to have completed a very short term Wave A downcycle (Wave A of a short term Wave C) on 10-13-08 since putting in a short term Wave B type cycle high at 90.84, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.72% versus the XOI today/on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX rose an unusually large +25.61% today 10-15 versus SPX falling an unusually large -9.04%, which is an unusually large +16.57% rise in fear (+25.61% + -9.04% = +16.57% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness early on Thursday 10-16.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:31 PM
2 Comments:
Like I said before, please tell your friends and relatives about this Blog via word of mouth and/or e mail.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:25 PM
Here's an interesting stock that needs to hit a 5% major buy signal and clearly break it's multi month downtrend line:
It's NTRZ, NutraCea, which had $42 Million+ cash at year end 2007 (see Yahoo's data), very little in the way of debt/liabilities, might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low recently, and, has had a lot of insider buying this year. Not a recommendation, do your own due diligence.
"NutraCea, a health-science company, develops and distributes stabilized rice bran and proprietary rice bran formulations. Its products include food supplements and medical foods that provide health benefits for humans and animals based on stabilized rice bran, rice bran derivatives, and the rice bran oils. The company's customers include consumer nutrition and healthcare companies, domestic and international food companies, and companion animal feed manufacturers. NutraCea was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona."
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:32 PM
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