SPX (S & P 500)/Major Averages Short Term Wave 1 Upcycle Peaked Shortly After The Open
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/major averages (and XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi)) short term Wave 1 upcycle (began 10-10-08) peaked shortly after the open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. The short term Wave 2 downcycle should bottom early tomorrow, based on the intraday Elliott Wave patterns.
I'll be looking to day trade the Russell 2000 ultra long via UWM or the XOI ultra long via DIG (Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dig) tomorrow. I'll also be looking to day trade short GDX and GLD (maybe I'll double short GLD via DZZ instead of shorting GLD). I might hold a GDX or GLD short overnight. Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation.
Early tomorrow GDX/HUI/XAU will probably do Wave 5 of the likely countertrend Wave B short term upcycle since late on 10-10-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The five day gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. Obviously, GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March 2008 probably didn't bottom yet. Also, the broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator, used in concert with the gold sector NEM Lead Indicator, is extremely bearish now, it was a modestly bullish +0.42% versus SPX today/on 10-14, and, it was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13.
I did a 16 minute day trade today, shorting GDX at 28.36 and covering at 28.23. The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was scary bullish intraday during that trade, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, which led to my quick trigger. It actually was extremely bullish, which meant that I probably should have held my short, but, it wasn't far from borderline (-2.00% versus the XAU). Also, I looked to reshort it/do another day trade.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/major averages appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish
+0.42% versus SPX today/on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
In the gold sector reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low yesterday 10-13-08 at 27.96, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-13-08's candle.
HUI might have (doubtful, NEM usually bottoms first) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low at 234.35 on 10-6-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI has a bullish short term triple bottom, as does the XAU, but, they probably didn't bottom yet.
The XAU might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-14-08) cycle low at 96.05 yesterday 10-13-06, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) might have (doubtful, NEM usually bottoms first) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low at 24.68 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish
-0.20% versus the XAU today/on 10-14, was an extremely bullish +2.42% on 10-13, -1.87% on 10-10, -3.17% on 10-9, -2.39% on 10-8, -3.97% on 10-7. The extremely bearish gold sector NEM Lead Indicator the past week obviously casts a great deal of doubt on whether GDX/HUI/XAU have bottomed.
The gold ETF GLD appears to have completed a very short term Wave A downcycle (Wave A of a short term Wave C) on 10-13-08 since putting in a short term Wave B type cycle high at 90.84, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX rose a significant +0.78% today 10-14 versus SPX falling a significant -0.53%, which is a modest +0.25% rise in fear (+0.78% + -0.53% = +0.25% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some modest strength early on Wednesday 10-15.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
I'll be looking to day trade the Russell 2000 ultra long via UWM or the XOI ultra long via DIG (Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dig) tomorrow. I'll also be looking to day trade short GDX and GLD (maybe I'll double short GLD via DZZ instead of shorting GLD). I might hold a GDX or GLD short overnight. Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation.
Early tomorrow GDX/HUI/XAU will probably do Wave 5 of the likely countertrend Wave B short term upcycle since late on 10-10-08, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
The five day gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. Obviously, GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March 2008 probably didn't bottom yet. Also, the broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator, used in concert with the gold sector NEM Lead Indicator, is extremely bearish now, it was a modestly bullish +0.42% versus SPX today/on 10-14, and, it was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13.
I did a 16 minute day trade today, shorting GDX at 28.36 and covering at 28.23. The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was scary bullish intraday during that trade, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, which led to my quick trigger. It actually was extremely bullish, which meant that I probably should have held my short, but, it wasn't far from borderline (-2.00% versus the XAU). Also, I looked to reshort it/do another day trade.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/major averages appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish
+0.42% versus SPX today/on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
In the gold sector reliable lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low yesterday 10-13-08 at 27.96, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-13-08's candle.
HUI might have (doubtful, NEM usually bottoms first) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low at 234.35 on 10-6-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI has a bullish short term triple bottom, as does the XAU, but, they probably didn't bottom yet.
The XAU might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-14-08) cycle low at 96.05 yesterday 10-13-06, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) might have (doubtful, NEM usually bottoms first) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-08) cycle low at 24.68 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish
-0.20% versus the XAU today/on 10-14, was an extremely bullish +2.42% on 10-13, -1.87% on 10-10, -3.17% on 10-9, -2.39% on 10-8, -3.97% on 10-7. The extremely bearish gold sector NEM Lead Indicator the past week obviously casts a great deal of doubt on whether GDX/HUI/XAU have bottomed.
The gold ETF GLD appears to have completed a very short term Wave A downcycle (Wave A of a short term Wave C) on 10-13-08 since putting in a short term Wave B type cycle high at 90.84, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX rose a significant +0.78% today 10-14 versus SPX falling a significant -0.53%, which is a modest +0.25% rise in fear (+0.78% + -0.53% = +0.25% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some modest strength early on Wednesday 10-15.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:37 PM
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