The S & P 500 (SPX) Put In A Short Term Wave 2 Cycle Low Today
The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early today as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on today's candle.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) also put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early today as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on today's candle.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a slightly lower bullish double bottom cycle low today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on today's candle. NDX is in a short term Wave 1 upcycle.
After probably some early strength tomorrow, the major averages and most sectors should be very weak, since the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +4.88% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-16, which is very bearish on a very short term basis, and, volatility remains extreme.
I'll be looking to ultra short either the major averages or the oil & gas sector (XOI) via SDS/QID/TWM or DUG early tomorrow. Since the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) just bottomed today, it's the best short early tomorrow, since it should put in a cycle low in the next day or two not far above today's, based on the nature of cycles, such that it's Cyclical Bull Market uptrend begins relatively flat.
Today I day traded the ultra long Russell 2000 (RUT) ETF UWM, buying at 23.12 and selling at 23.79.
The S & P 500 (SPX) appears to have ended today's session in Wave 5 of a very short term Wave 1 upcycle (Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 that began early today) see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. Waves 1 and 3 of a very short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred close together in time, shortly before and shortly after noon, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today 10-16-08 at 27.25, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on today's candle.
It's doubtful that GDX/HUI/XAU put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-06, 3-14-08 for the XAU) cycle low today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Today's candles just aren't that bullish, they lack the usual very bullish very large inverse spike that tends to mark very important cycle lows.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +3.23% versus the XAU today/on 10-16, and, it was an extremely bullish +5.62% on 10-15, which is very bearish on a very short term basis, and, points to likely severe gold sector weakness again tomorrow.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (NDX today) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish
+4.88% versus SPX today/on 10-16, was a nearly very bullish +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A now probably defunct Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The gold ETF GLD appears to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern today (Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08), since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +5.22% versus the XOI today/on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX fell a sharp -2.89% today 10-16 versus SPX rising a very sharp +4.25%, which is a significant +1.36% rise in fear (-2.89% + +4.25% = +1.36% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant strength early on Friday 10-17.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) also put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early today as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on today's candle.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a slightly lower bullish double bottom cycle low today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on today's candle. NDX is in a short term Wave 1 upcycle.
After probably some early strength tomorrow, the major averages and most sectors should be very weak, since the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +4.88% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 10-16, which is very bearish on a very short term basis, and, volatility remains extreme.
I'll be looking to ultra short either the major averages or the oil & gas sector (XOI) via SDS/QID/TWM or DUG early tomorrow. Since the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) just bottomed today, it's the best short early tomorrow, since it should put in a cycle low in the next day or two not far above today's, based on the nature of cycles, such that it's Cyclical Bull Market uptrend begins relatively flat.
Today I day traded the ultra long Russell 2000 (RUT) ETF UWM, buying at 23.12 and selling at 23.79.
The S & P 500 (SPX) appears to have ended today's session in Wave 5 of a very short term Wave 1 upcycle (Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 that began early today) see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. Waves 1 and 3 of a very short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred close together in time, shortly before and shortly after noon, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today 10-16-08 at 27.25, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on today's candle.
It's doubtful that GDX/HUI/XAU put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 3-17-06, 3-14-08 for the XAU) cycle low today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. Today's candles just aren't that bullish, they lack the usual very bullish very large inverse spike that tends to mark very important cycle lows.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +3.23% versus the XAU today/on 10-16, and, it was an extremely bullish +5.62% on 10-15, which is very bearish on a very short term basis, and, points to likely severe gold sector weakness again tomorrow.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (NDX today) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish
+4.88% versus SPX today/on 10-16, was a nearly very bullish +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A now probably defunct Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The gold ETF GLD appears to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern today (Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08), since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish +5.22% versus the XOI today/on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX fell a sharp -2.89% today 10-16 versus SPX rising a very sharp +4.25%, which is a significant +1.36% rise in fear (-2.89% + +4.25% = +1.36% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant strength early on Friday 10-17.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:36 PM
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