The S & P 500 (SPX) Is Deceptively Trying To Fill It's Upside Gap At 998.01
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) is deceptively trying to fill it's upside gap at 998.01 from 10-15's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. It looks like SPX might spike at tomorrow's open and quickly fill it's upside gap at 998.01.
Because of how bearish the intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was today 10-20, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, it was a very difficult day to day trade aggressively long, as I was looking to do. So, I did nothing today. That's the bad news.
The good news is that SPX's (S & P 500) and many other indexes very short term Wave 1 upcycle since early 10-16 should peak/complete Wave 5 early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c, and, the extremely bearish
WMT Lead Indicator (-3.54% versus SPX on 10-20, -0.94% on 10-17) points to a great shorting opportunity. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) looks like a great short, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, because, the
XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (-1.47% versus XOI on 10-20, -2.24% on 10-17), and, the extremely bearish broad market WMT Lead Indicator (-3.54% versus SPX on 10-20, -0.94% on 10-17) must also be factored in, plus, volatility is extreme now, so, if one can stand supersonic volatility, DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares) looks like a great trade tomorrow.
DUG will be my primary trade tomorrow. DUG has downside gaps at 39.50, 38.85, 35.89, and 34.67.
Concerning the GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags) one has to wait for a 5% major buy signal. HUI (and GDX/XAU) doesn't appear to have bottomed yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) also put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a slightly lower bullish double bottom cycle low on 10-16, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle. NDX is in a short term Wave 1 upcycle.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have (doubtful obviously) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low on 10-17-08 at 26.42, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the large somewhat bullish inverse spike on 10-17's candle, that obviously isn't bullish enough to be a likely/potential Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (which is bearish on a very short term basis) +2.23% versus the XAU today/on 10-20, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 10-17, was an extremely bullish +3.23% on 10-16, and, it was an extremely bullish +5.62% on 10-15.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (NDX on 10-16) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish (very short term bullish) -3.54% versus SPX today/on 10-20, was a bearish -0.94% on 10-17, was an extremely bullish+4.88% on 10-16, was a nearly very bullish +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A now probably defunct Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The gold ETF GLD appears to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern on 10-17 (Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08), since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.47% versus the XOI today/on 10-20, was an extremely bearish -2.24% on 10-17 (which was correctly very short term bullish, pointing to strength today/on Monday), was an extremely bullish +5.22% on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX fell an unusually large -24.50% today 10-20 versus SPX rising a very sharp +4.77%, which is an unusually large +19.73% rise in complacency (-24.50% + +4.77% = -19.73% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant strength early on Tuesday 10-21.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 998.01, 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Because of how bearish the intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was today 10-20, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, it was a very difficult day to day trade aggressively long, as I was looking to do. So, I did nothing today. That's the bad news.
The good news is that SPX's (S & P 500) and many other indexes very short term Wave 1 upcycle since early 10-16 should peak/complete Wave 5 early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c, and, the extremely bearish
WMT Lead Indicator (-3.54% versus SPX on 10-20, -0.94% on 10-17) points to a great shorting opportunity. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) looks like a great short, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, because, the
XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (-1.47% versus XOI on 10-20, -2.24% on 10-17), and, the extremely bearish broad market WMT Lead Indicator (-3.54% versus SPX on 10-20, -0.94% on 10-17) must also be factored in, plus, volatility is extreme now, so, if one can stand supersonic volatility, DUG (UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares) looks like a great trade tomorrow.
DUG will be my primary trade tomorrow. DUG has downside gaps at 39.50, 38.85, 35.89, and 34.67.
Concerning the GDX/HUI/XAU/gold sector (gold lags) one has to wait for a 5% major buy signal. HUI (and GDX/XAU) doesn't appear to have bottomed yet, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui.
The S & P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT) put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) also put in a Short Term Wave 2 cycle low early on 10-16 as expected, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) put in a slightly lower bullish double bottom cycle low on 10-16, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, that's potentially a Cyclical Bear Market (since late October 2007) cycle low. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-16's candle. NDX is in a short term Wave 1 upcycle.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) might have (doubtful obviously) put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low on 10-17-08 at 26.42, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Note the large somewhat bullish inverse spike on 10-17's candle, that obviously isn't bullish enough to be a likely/potential Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (which is bearish on a very short term basis) +2.23% versus the XAU today/on 10-20, was an extremely bearish -2.02% on 10-17, was an extremely bullish +3.23% on 10-16, and, it was an extremely bullish +5.62% on 10-15.
Obviously, the S & P 500 (SPX)/some major averages (NDX on 10-16) appear to have finally bottomed/put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low on Friday 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. Note SPX's very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, and, reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) also has a very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
The broad market WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was an extremely bearish (very short term bullish) -3.54% versus SPX today/on 10-20, was a bearish -0.94% on 10-17, was an extremely bullish+4.88% on 10-16, was a nearly very bullish +0.98% on 10-15, was +0.42% on 10-14, was an extremely bearish -4.61% on 10-13, +0.21% on 10-10, +1.83% on 10-9, +0.60% on 10-8, +0.45% on 10-7, +0.79% on 10-6, +2.85% on 10-3, +2.67% on 10-2, -0.06% on 10-1, -2.81% on 9-30, +5.03% on 9-29, +0.64% on 9-26, +0.07% on 9-25, +1.09% on 9-24, +0.73% on 9-23, +2.46% on 9-22.
A now probably defunct Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
The gold ETF GLD appears to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern on 10-17 (Wave A of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08), since putting in a countertrend Wave B type monthly cycle high at 90.84 on 9-29-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since late May) cycle low at 744.56 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
Also, reliable Oil & Gas sector lead indicator XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May) cycle low at 56.51 on 10-10-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?xom. Note the very large very bullish inverse spike on 10-10-08's candle.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.47% versus the XOI today/on 10-20, was an extremely bearish -2.24% on 10-17 (which was correctly very short term bullish, pointing to strength today/on Monday), was an extremely bullish +5.22% on 10-16, was a bullish +0.72% on 10-15, was a bearish -0.98% on 10-14, +0.49% on 10-13, -2.60% on 10-10, -0.49% on 10-9, +0.92% on 10-8, +4.50% on 10-7, +2.68% on 10-6, +0.44% on 10-3, +5.84% on 10-2.
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
VIX fell an unusually large -24.50% today 10-20 versus SPX rising a very sharp +4.77%, which is an unusually large +19.73% rise in complacency (-24.50% + +4.77% = -19.73% decline in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant strength early on Tuesday 10-21.
Since SPX (S & P 500) probably bottomed on 10-10-08 I'll look to trade rockets. It makes a lot of sense to trade with the wind at your back.
Since SPX probably put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low watch upside gaps at (I need to check/update this list) 998.01, 1278.60, 1305.31, 1321.97, 1342.83, 1350.93, 1404.05, 1426.63, 1447.16, 1467.95, 1488.41, and, there are additional upside gaps I need to identify.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:02 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home