A Cautionary Note Regarding Trading The XOI Via DIG (Ultra Long) or DUG (Ultra Short) Tomorrow
A cautionary note regarding trading the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) via DIG (ultra long ETF) or DUG (ultra short ETF) tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c, if you're brave enough (trading a very modest or modest position is a way of dealing with the extreme volatility, that's obviously magnified by the ultra ETFs).
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) appears to have ended the session in Wave 5 (Wave 1 was the spike at the open, then Wave 2 down bottomed early on today 10-20, it could also (less likely) obviously be in a funky deceptive Wave 5 of Wave 5) of Wave 3 of Wave 5, of the very short term Wave 1 upcycle since early on 10-16-08, so, it looks like the XOI still needs to do Wave 4 down and Wave 5 up of Wave 5 of the very short term Wave 1 upcycle since early on 10-16-08, which jives with the bullish intraday 5 day XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom, that was a very bearish -1.47% versus the XOI today/on 10-20 (-2.24% on 10-17, +5.22% on 10-16, +0.72% on 10-15).
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and some other major averages appear to have the same count as XOI, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, be careful trading major averages ETFs tomorrow also.
If the Elliott Wave count is unclear one should wait until an upcycle's trendline (or downcycle's is broken to the upside) clearly breaks down, though, the 5 day lead indicators can be very useful also, if they agree (sector XOM Lead Indicator and broad market WMT Lead Indicator in the case of the XOI).
Will I be brave enough to trade the XOI ultra long via DIG early tomorrow to catch the final Wave 5 of Wave 5 upcycle? I might just do a "quick hitter" 5 or 10 minute day trade with DIG, if I trade it at all tomorrow, I might just wait to trade ultra short via DUG. One needs to read the XOI discussion in the previous post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/10/s-p-500-spx-is-deceptively-trying-to.html), in addition to this one.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) appears to have ended the session in Wave 5 (Wave 1 was the spike at the open, then Wave 2 down bottomed early on today 10-20, it could also (less likely) obviously be in a funky deceptive Wave 5 of Wave 5) of Wave 3 of Wave 5, of the very short term Wave 1 upcycle since early on 10-16-08, so, it looks like the XOI still needs to do Wave 4 down and Wave 5 up of Wave 5 of the very short term Wave 1 upcycle since early on 10-16-08, which jives with the bullish intraday 5 day XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom, that was a very bearish -1.47% versus the XOI today/on 10-20 (-2.24% on 10-17, +5.22% on 10-16, +0.72% on 10-15).
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) and some other major averages appear to have the same count as XOI, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, so, be careful trading major averages ETFs tomorrow also.
If the Elliott Wave count is unclear one should wait until an upcycle's trendline (or downcycle's is broken to the upside) clearly breaks down, though, the 5 day lead indicators can be very useful also, if they agree (sector XOM Lead Indicator and broad market WMT Lead Indicator in the case of the XOI).
Will I be brave enough to trade the XOI ultra long via DIG early tomorrow to catch the final Wave 5 of Wave 5 upcycle? I might just do a "quick hitter" 5 or 10 minute day trade with DIG, if I trade it at all tomorrow, I might just wait to trade ultra short via DUG. One needs to read the XOI discussion in the previous post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/10/s-p-500-spx-is-deceptively-trying-to.html), in addition to this one.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
Labels: SPX
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
4:22 PM
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