SPX's (S & P 500) Wave C Type Move Since Friday's Open Will Probably Bottom Early Tomorrow
SPX's (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) Wave C downcycle type move since Friday 10-24's open will probably bottom early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) did Wave A of Wave C in Friday 10-24's plunge at the open, in a which a bearish breakaway upside gap at 908.11 was created. The countertrend Wave B up of Wave C peaked late on Friday 10-24. Wave A of Wave C of Wave C bottomed when today 10-27's plunge at the open bottomed shortly after the open. Wave B of Wave C of Wave C peaked at 1:40ish, and, SPX ended the session in a final Wave C of Wave C of Wave C type move, that'll probably bottom early tomorrow.
SPX's bearish large spike on a bearish black (close below the open) candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, is a sign that early weakness is likely tomorrow.
SPX's (S & P 500) technical indicators like RSI (29.27) and Williams %R (-95.54 out of a maximum of -100) are very oversold, which points to a bounce after likely early weakness.
Looking at the five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (-0.19% versus SPX today/on 10-27, +0.87% on 10-24, -0.32% on 10-23, +3.49% on 10-22, +1.68% on 10-21), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, the fact that it's extremely bullish correctly pointed to very short term weakness. The past three sessions it's modestly bullish though, which jives with a bounce beginning probably early tomorrow, after likely early weakness.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX has put in lower cycle lows in each of the past four sessions.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is definitely in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. So, I'll look to day trade the XOI ultra long via DIG tomorrow, after likely early weakness. Today I day traded the XOI ultra short via DUG, buying at 53.11 and selling at 54.35.
The 5 day XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (+1.46% versus the XOI today/on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24, +2.79% on 10-23, +0.47% on 10-22, +0.57% on 10-21) has turned "super bullish," see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=xom, so maybe the XOI will put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low tomorrow.
Concerning GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) the NEM Lead Indicator remained bearish today, at a modestly bearish -0.40% versus the XAU today/on 10-27, -2.08% on 10-24, and, -0.85% on 10-23. It looks like HUI will take out Friday's cycle low at 150.27 early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
In order for HUI's Secular Bull Market to remain intact, all HUI has to do is to bottom above it's Secular Bear Market cycle low at 35.31 that occurred in November 2000 (HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market began on November 15, 2000 after the 35.31 very long term cycle low). If HUI's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 bottoms at 36 or even 35.32, then HUI will be in a Secular Bull Market/Very Long Term Upcycle as expected.
The HUI/XAU/GDX (Gold Miners ETF, based on the obscure AMEX Gold Miners Index) Secular Bull Market uptrend line isn't known/defined until the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low occurs.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) did Wave A of Wave C in Friday 10-24's plunge at the open, in a which a bearish breakaway upside gap at 908.11 was created. The countertrend Wave B up of Wave C peaked late on Friday 10-24. Wave A of Wave C of Wave C bottomed when today 10-27's plunge at the open bottomed shortly after the open. Wave B of Wave C of Wave C peaked at 1:40ish, and, SPX ended the session in a final Wave C of Wave C of Wave C type move, that'll probably bottom early tomorrow.
SPX's bearish large spike on a bearish black (close below the open) candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, is a sign that early weakness is likely tomorrow.
SPX's (S & P 500) technical indicators like RSI (29.27) and Williams %R (-95.54 out of a maximum of -100) are very oversold, which points to a bounce after likely early weakness.
Looking at the five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator (-0.19% versus SPX today/on 10-27, +0.87% on 10-24, -0.32% on 10-23, +3.49% on 10-22, +1.68% on 10-21), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, the fact that it's extremely bullish correctly pointed to very short term weakness. The past three sessions it's modestly bullish though, which jives with a bounce beginning probably early tomorrow, after likely early weakness.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX has put in lower cycle lows in each of the past four sessions.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is definitely in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. So, I'll look to day trade the XOI ultra long via DIG tomorrow, after likely early weakness. Today I day traded the XOI ultra short via DUG, buying at 53.11 and selling at 54.35.
The 5 day XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (+1.46% versus the XOI today/on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24, +2.79% on 10-23, +0.47% on 10-22, +0.57% on 10-21) has turned "super bullish," see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=xom, so maybe the XOI will put in a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low tomorrow.
Concerning GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) the NEM Lead Indicator remained bearish today, at a modestly bearish -0.40% versus the XAU today/on 10-27, -2.08% on 10-24, and, -0.85% on 10-23. It looks like HUI will take out Friday's cycle low at 150.27 early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
In order for HUI's Secular Bull Market to remain intact, all HUI has to do is to bottom above it's Secular Bear Market cycle low at 35.31 that occurred in November 2000 (HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market began on November 15, 2000 after the 35.31 very long term cycle low). If HUI's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 bottoms at 36 or even 35.32, then HUI will be in a Secular Bull Market/Very Long Term Upcycle as expected.
The HUI/XAU/GDX (Gold Miners ETF, based on the obscure AMEX Gold Miners Index) Secular Bull Market uptrend line isn't known/defined until the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low occurs.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:55 PM
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